AMNA NAWAZ: Good evening.

I'm Amna Nawaz.

Geoff Bennett is away.

On the "NewsHour" tonight: President Trump, standing with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, announces a new proposal to end the war in Gaza and issues an ultimatum to Hamas if they don't sign on.

DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States: Israel would have my fall back into finish the job of destroying the threat of Hamas.

I hope that we're going to have a deal for peace.

AMNA NAWAZ: Investigators comb through the aftermath of a shooting and arson attack on a Mormon church in Michigan and search for the suspect's motive.

And Democratic leadership negotiates with President Trump as a government shutdown looms.

(BREAK) AMNA NAWAZ: Welcome to the "News Hour."

President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a plan today to end the war in Gaza.

But Hamas has yet to agree, and there are questions about its implementation.

Nick Schifrin begins our coverage.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Today at the White House, a presidential pronouncement of the end of an era.

DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States: This is eternity.

This is for forever.

(GUNSHOTS) NICK SCHIFRIN: It has been 724 days since Hamas' October 7 terrorist attacks, 724 days of war in Gaza.

And if Hamas accepts this deal, the guns would fall silent within 72 hours.

DONALD TRUMP: There shouldn't have to be a shot fired, maybe for eternity.

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, Israeli Prime Minister: I support your plan to end the war in Gaza, which achieves our war aims.

It will bring back to Israel all our hostages, dismantle Hamas' military capabilities, end its political rule, and ensure that Gaza never again poses a threat to Israel.

NICK SCHIFRIN: In a 20-point plan released by the White House, the deal would release all 50 Israeli hostages currently in Gaza, both dead and alive.

Israeli soldiers would withdraw in phases marked in a White House map, but remain in what the plan calls a security buffer zone.

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU: Gaza will be demilitarized.

Israel will retain security responsibility, including a security perimeter for the foreseeable future.

NICK SCHIFRIN: But the plan declares -- quote - - "The conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood."

DONALD TRUMP: There are many Palestinians who wish to live in peace, many, many.

I have seen so many of them.

And they have support.

And I challenge the Palestinians to take responsibility for their destiny, because that's what we're giving them.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Hamas would not be allowed to govern Gaza, and fighters who renounced violence would receive amnesty.

Foreign troops would provide security and train Palestinian police.

And until the Palestinian Authority -- quote -- "has completed its reform program," Gaza would be run by a transitional body called the Board of Peace chaired by President Trump and including former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU: The P.A.

could have no role whatsoever in Gaza without undergoing a radical and genuine transformation.

And that means ending pay to slay, changing the poisonous textbooks that teach hatred to Jews, to Palestinian children, stopping incitement in the media, ending lawfare against Israel at the ICC, the ICJ, recognizing the Jewish state and many, many other reforms.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Regional officials tell "PBS News Hour" tonight that Qatar and Turkey are pressuring Hamas to accept the deal.

But if they don't, Israel will proceed with its current plans to take over Gaza City.

DONALD TRUMP: I have a feeling that we're going to have a positive answer.

But if not, as you know, Bibi, you'd have more full backing to do what you would have to do.

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU: This can be done the easy way or it can be done the hard way.

But it will be done.

NICK SCHIFRIN: So far, in Gaza, it has been the hard way.

There's destruction as far as the eye can see.

And the sky today is scattered with cautions, Israeli messages urging Gazans to evacuate.

Satellite images show Israel is razing what's left of Gaza City.

That's Sheikh Radwan neighborhood, once a densely populated area, now flattened.

Today, from Gazans, we heard desperate skepticism.

WAEL AL-MAMLOUK, Displaced Gazan (through translator): They negotiate and we are living under the fire, under oppression and injustice.

Every day, Gaza is being annihilated and the unjust world watches us.

Until when?

MOHMMED ABU BANAT, Displaced Gazan (through translator): We're dying for God's sake, as you can see this destruction.

Who will rebuild this destruction?

Who will?

Who will do this to Gaza?

NICK SCHIFRIN: That is an understatement.

The end of the war will require seemingly insurmountable rebuilding, assuming the two sides can finally end this war.

Tonight, two regional officials confirm that Qatar and Egypt have formally presented the plan to Hamas.

There has been no response yet.

But, Amna, Hamas would have to release all of the hostages before a full Israeli withdrawal.

That is not something that Hamas has been willing to accept so far.

AMNA NAWAZ: Nick, I know you have been also reporting on the fact that during the meeting at the White House, the president facilitated a phone call.

Tell us about that and why it matters.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Yes, an extraordinary phone call between the prime ministers of Israel and Qatar, some three weeks after Israel bombed Qatar's capital, Doha, aiming for, but missing Hamas' political leaders.

And, today, in the Oval Office, President Trump calling Doha's prime minister with Bibi Netanyahu in the room.

And Netanyahu said he -- quote -- "regrets" that a Qatari was killed in the attack and -- quote -- "has no plan to violate your sovereignty again."

Steve Witkoff, the ambassador tonight, called that an apology.

It certainly was a rare mea culpa from Netanyahu, Amna, on the very day that he agreed to the president's peace plan, despite the fact that he has been saying that he would handle Hamas once and for all on the battlefield -- Amna.

AMNA NAWAZ: Nick Schifrin reporting tonight on our lead story from the White House.

Nick, thank you.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Thank you.

AMNA NAWAZ: For more on all of this, we turn now to two "News Hour" regulars.

That is David Makovsky of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Hussein Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, D.C.

Welcome to you both gentlemen.

David, kick us off here.

Tell us why Netanyahu would agree to this particular plan and why right now, when it could jeopardize his own governing coalition back in Israel.

HUSSEIN IBISH: Well, I mean... DAVID MAKOVSKY, Senior Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy: Look, I think Netanyahu had to balance a lot of different things.

Amna.

First, Israel is more isolated than it has been.

He knows there will not be a better deal than he would get one with them with Donald Trump.

I think he doesn't want to miss that moment.

He doesn't want to put more strain on U.S.

relations, as President Trump has made clear he does want to end the war.

And also he's aware that the sequencing of this 20-point U.S.

initiative avoids a certain political trip wires for him.

They do not force him to bring the Palestinian Authority from Ramallah in the West Bank to Gaza.

The issue of negotiations over two states are -- is finessed and with wording that I think he could live with.

He knows that his rivals will try to use anything against him within the coalition and this could bring down his government.

Until now, he has avoided that to do anything that would threaten his coalition.

But elections are due in a year from now at the latest.

And he may feel that, if faced between Trump and his own coalition, he's going to choose Trump.

And I think he also feels that there were certain contentious points within the 20 points that were kind of resolved in his benefit.

So I think, if you take that all together, you see a prime minister who is not just sounding like yes but at this point, hoping that Hamas will torpedo the deal for him.

But I think he's putting the primacy on Trump.

AMNA NAWAZ: Well, let me -- David, if I may, bring in Hussein on that point then.

(CROSSTALK) AMNA NAWAZ: You make the segue for me.

Hussein, what now with Hamas?

The plan sits with them.

Trump has said, if they don't accept it, Israel has his permission to -- quote, unquote -- "finish the job."

Are they incentivized to join on the plan?

HUSSEIN IBISH: Whatever that means.

Yes, I mean, I have no idea what finish the job means.

Nobody knows, least of all the Israeli military, which will be handed the job, which they don't want, because they don't have a mission that can be described in any coherent, intelligible sense.

Look, the earlier drafts of this document that I have had described to me in detail by people who know about it and diplomats who are very familiar with earlier drafts was a lot more reasonable towards Hamas and towards the Palestinians.

Essentially, Netanyahu has gotten rid of -- has convinced Trump to water this agreement down, as David said, finesse, issues like the Palestinian right to a state, which is something Israel has never recognized ever, down to the point of meaninglessness.

It is basically an instrument of unconditional surrender, with one exception, which is the release of prisoners.

That -- it's specific about that.

Everything else is pretty well laid open to the voluntary action of Israel to go according to its own judgment.

And I think it's going to therefore be very difficult for Hamas to agree to this.

They might have agreed to an earlier version, because they have their eyes set on the West Bank, rather than Gaza, and political power among Palestinians, rather than this endless war with Israel they have gotten into.

So I think they might well have agreed to the earlier versions, but Netanyahu took out everything that might have been appealing to them.

And I agree he's relying on them to torpedo this.

And I think it would be kind of dumb for them to do it, because if they say yes and put him in the spot... AMNA NAWAZ: Hussein, if I may, am I hearing you say you don't think that Hamas would sign on to this?

Is that correct?

HUSSEIN IBISH: I would be surprised if they do, though they're under tremendous pressure.

Netanyahu faces the triple pressure of the military, the public, and Trump.

Hamas faces pressure from everyone, absolutely everyone, not least of which the Palestinian people.

But I think they may say no.

AMNA NAWAZ: Let me turn back to David then on this point that Hussein raised, David, which is that a reformed Palestinian Authority is part of this plan.

The language leaves the door open for an eventual Palestinian state.

Those are both things Netanyahu has opposed.

Is this written in a way that gives the Israeli government room to maneuver around that, just to keep saying, well, the P.A.

hasn't met the reforms as they're laid out?

DAVID MAKOVSKY: Look, I would say this, and let's -- to be fair about it is that they are front-loading here very important things that the world has wanted, the Arab world has wanted, the Muslim world has wanted, which is in the war, surge aid into Gaza, begin reconstruction of Gaza.

That is all there.

And as Hussein and I, who know each other for all these decades, knows that the enemy is -- the perfect could be the enemy of the good.

And when we say nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, in the Middle East, often nothing is agreed.

I think what the president is trying to do here is to say, let's just end the war now.

Let's release the hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

Let's surge the aid.

Let's begin reconstruction, create a mechanism, close the door on Gaza annexation for Israel.

No forced displacement by anyone.

And Gaza for the Gazans, essentially.

The whole Riviera concept of Trump, of immigration is clearly explicitly said this is not what they're trying to do.

So I do think that there are a lot of elements here that people would like and that we should get going on.

(CROSSTALK) HUSSEIN IBISH: I agree with that.

(CROSSTALK) AMNA NAWAZ: Hussein, I will just note, I will give you the last word here.

We have got about a minute left.

Please go ahead.

Yes.

HUSSEIN IBISH: Yes, I think Hamas would be wise to do this, not just from a moral and human managerial point of view, but, politically, it would be the smart place, say yes or even yes but, which is what Netanyahu, I think, was planning to say to the original drafts.

However, Hamas is not thinking about this in any other terms other than strategically and politically, which is exactly the way Netanyahu is thinking about it.

And I think there are -- things like the Palestinian statehood are not optional for the Gulf countries and others, and especially not for the Palestinians.

And Israel must be compelled at some point to recognize that Palestinians have the right to a state.

They have never acknowledged that, and they must acknowledge that.

And until they do, there's going to be a big problem.

AMNA NAWAZ: Gentlemen, we will have to leave it there.

We hope to have you both on to continue this very important conversation.

Hussein Ibish, David Makovsky, thank you so much.

HUSSEIN IBISH: Thank you both.

Thank you, David.

DAVID MAKOVSKY: Thank you, Amna.

Thank you.

AMNA NAWAZ: We start the day's other headlines in Michigan.

Police say that everyone is accounted for after a gunman killed four congregants on Sunday at a Mormon church south of Flint.

Eight others were injured, some during the aftermath, when the shooter set the church on fire.

More than 100 federal officials are involved in the investigation, but no motive has yet been confirmed.

Deema Zein has our report on the latest.

DEEMA ZEIN: Police scoured the charred ruins of what used to be the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints in Grand Blanc Township one day after a gunman opened fire during Sunday service and set the entire building ablaze.

CHRIS SWANSON, Genesee County, Michigan, Sheriff: I saw what you trained for, what you planned for, and then reality hit yesterday morning in a bright sunny day when people went to worship.

DEEMA ZEIN: The county sheriff praised law enforcement's swift response and brave churchgoers who risked their lives to protect children from gunfire.

CHRIS SWANSON: There are noble heroes who do not wear a uniform that went to that church yesterday.

You're going to hear their stories as we lay out this case with law enforcement, but I will tell you this.

Those heroes from that church did their job.

DEEMA ZEIN: This morning, a silver pickup truck remained on the scene.

Officials say 40-year-old Thomas Jacob Sanford, a former Marine, used it to ram through the building before getting out and shooting at hundreds of people.

He then ignited a gasoline fire which destroyed the entire complex after burning for hours.

Police say they fatally shot the suspect shortly after.

The FBI is still determining a motive, but called it an act of targeted violence.

Others say the gunman was angry about the Mormon Church.

One candidate for city council in the nearby city of Burton told The Detroit Free Press he met the suspect less than a week ago while campaigning.

In a tirade, the shooter called the religion the Antichrist.

GOV.

GRETCHEN WHITMER (D-MI): We have lots of questions.

How could this happen?

DEEMA ZEIN: Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer called for patience while the investigation plays out.

GOV.

GRETCHEN WHITMER: At this juncture, speculation is unhelpful and it can be downright dangerous.

So, I just ask that people lower the temperature of rhetoric.

DEEMA ZEIN: It's the latest in a number of shootings targeting religious institutions in America.

Just last month, two children were killed during back-to-school mass at Annunciation Catholic Church in Minneapolis; 19 others were injured.

And it wasn't even the only mass shooting of the weekend.

In Southport, North Carolina three people were killed when a man fired toward a waterfront bar from his boat.

The Coast Guard arrested the suspect, also a Marine veteran.

Back in Michigan, the physical damage in Grand Blanc is paired with emotional scars.

BRANDT MALONE, Church Member: It feels like our world has turned upside down, but, honestly, this is where -- this is where our faith plays a huge part in everything like that to be able to say, look, we're not exactly sure why things happen that way, but we have our faith that we can rely on.

DEEMA ZEIN: For the "PBS News Hour," I'm Deema Zein.

AMNA NAWAZ: Also today, YouTube has agreed to pay more than $24 million to settle a lawsuit over President Trump's suspension from the platform in 2021.

The deal was first reported by The Wall Street Journal.

Trump sued YouTube along with two other social media companies after they suspended his accounts following the January 6 riots.

YouTube, which is owned by Google's Alphabet, is the last one to settle after Facebook's Meta and X agreed to do so earlier this year.

According to court documents, much of the YouTube settlement funds will go towards building Trump's White House ballroom.

The Pentagon confirmed plans today to send 200 members of the Oregon National Guard to Portland.

In a statement provided to the "News Hour," spokesman Sean Parnell said the goal is to -- quote -- "deter rampant lawlessness within Portland and to enable federal law enforcement officers to safely conduct their duties."

The planned deployment has sparked protests, with small groups squaring off with Border Patrol officers already in the city.

The state of Oregon and Portland itself are suing the Trump administration, arguing that the deployment is an unconstitutional abuse of power.

In the meantime, Illinois Governor J.B.

Pritzker says his administration has learned of plans to deploy 100 troops to his state.

Speaking to reporters today, Pritzker said the deployment is aimed at protecting ICE personnel and facilities.

This comes after tense confrontations over the weekend between federal agents and protesters outside an ICE processing facility in a Chicago suburb.

Pritzker said today that -- quote -- "None of what Trump is doing is making Illinois safer."

The Trump administration is opening up 13 million acres of federal lands for possible coal mining.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum announced the action at a press conference earlier today.

DOUG BURGUM, U.S.

Interior Secretary: Everybody likes to say drill, baby, drill.

I know that President Trump's got another initiative for us, and that's mine, baby, mine.

AMNA NAWAZ: Officials are also providing $625 million to revamp coal-fired power plants.

Environmental groups denounced the plans, which come after President Trump issued executive orders in April aimed at reversing a long-running decline in the coal industry.

Coal once generated around half of America's electricity.

Last year, it was around 15 percent.

During Trump's first term, roughly 100 coal plants shut down.

Video game maker Electronic Arts is being acquired and taken private in what could be the largest private equity buyout in history.

Silver Lake, Affinity Partners and Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund PIF are teaming up to buy the maker of "Madden NFL" and The Sims, among other titles.

They will pay EA stockholders $210 per share.

The companies value the all-cash deal at about $55 billion when counting in debt.

Affinity Partners is run by President Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

The Southeastern U.S.

could be spared from the worst of Tropical Storm Imelda this week thanks to another Atlantic system that may draw it out to sea.

Imelda has already forced evacuations and closed some offices and schools in the Bahamas.

It's also lash, Cuba, where at least one person has died.

It's expected to strengthen into a hurricane, joining major Hurricane Humberto, which is farther out in the Atlantic.

And Humberto could actually be a saving grace, with its size and force acting to pull Imelda away from the U.S.

Still, officials are warning residents not to take the potential impact of Imelda lightly.

GOV.

JOSH STEIN (D-NC): The storm will likely linger and hazardous conditions on the coast may continue throughout the end of the week.

So if you're visiting the beaches, please stay out of the water this week.

And folks in the east, just be aware that flash flooding may happen in your community.

AMNA NAWAZ: Although the U.S.

should be largely spared, the same cannot be said for Bermuda.

Both storms are heading toward the island territory.

Humberto is said to wrap around and pass north of the area tomorrow and Wednesday.

Imelda is on track to hit Bermuda head on as a strong hurricane around midweek.

European leaders today celebrated the results of this weekend's elections in Moldova, which handed the pro-Western governing party a clear majority in Parliament.

French, German, and Polish officials congratulated Moldova for a peaceful election, despite what they called Russia's -- quote - - "vote-buying schemes and disinformation."

Located between Ukraine and E.U.

member Romania, Moldova is seen as a geopolitical battleground between Russia and Europe.

It applied to join the E.U.

in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu says the vote's outcome shows continued support for that effort.

MAIA SANDU, President of Moldova: We want to keep this country part of the free world.

And no matter how difficult it is and no matter how big the pressure from Moscow is and will be, we will continue, because we believe in freedom and democracy.

And that's the choice of the Moldovan people.

AMNA NAWAZ: Russia denies interference and instead alleges that hundreds of thousands of Moldovans who reside in Russia were unable to vote due to limited polling stations.

For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised Moldova's result, saying it shows that Moscow failed to - - quote -- "destabilize the country."

Wall Street posted modest gains today as some big tech stocks regained their footing after recent losses.

The Dow Jones industrial average added nearly 70 points on the day.

The Nasdaq rose more than 100 points.

The S&P 500 also ended higher.

Still to come on the "News Hour": why health care has become a sticking point in the negotiations to avoid a government shutdown; Amy Walter and Tamara Keith break down the latest political headlines; and how the art world has been responding to a second Trump administration.

A federal government shutdown in less than a day-and-a-half appears unavoidable after a meeting between President Trump and congressional leaders from both sides of the aisle failed to produce a deal this afternoon.

SEN.

CHUCK SCHUMER (D-NY): It's up to the Republicans whether they want a shutdown or not.

We have made to the president some proposals.

Our Republican leaders will have to talk to them about them, but ultimately he's the decision-maker.

J.D.

VANCE, Vice President of the United States: I think we're headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won't do the right thing.

I hope they change their mind, but we're going to see.

AMNA NAWAZ: White House correspondent Liz Landers and congressional correspondent Lisa Desjardins join us now with more on the impasse.

So, Liz, just start us off with that meeting.

Tell us what happened at the White House.

LIZ LANDERS: Yes, Amna, no breakthrough here in terms of avoiding a government shutdown that could come tomorrow, Tuesday at midnight.

And if you are listening to the vice president there, that sound bite that you just played, he's foreshadowing that we could be headed into this shutdown.

It was notable that Vice President Vance came out, led the Republican congressional leadership in addressing the media there today, placing the blame again on Democrats.

And he discussed some of the policy differences that still stand between the administration and Democrats.

Listen to what he said earlier.

J.D.

VANCE: The principle at stake here is very simple.

We have disagreements about tax policy, but you don't shut the government down.

We have disagreements about health care policy, but you don't shut the government down.

You don't use your policy disagreements as leverage.

LIZ LANDERS: And the vice president really speaking on behalf of the administration today.

We saw President Trump was very focused on that foreign leader visit with Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel.

We heard a little bit from the president earlier today on this shutdown, again criticizing Democrats more and saying that their ideas to keep the government open aren't good, Amna.

AMNA NAWAZ: Lisa, meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, I know you have been speaking with lawmakers since that meeting.

Your reporting shows both sides are digging in.

Why?

LISA DESJARDINS: Well, this is unusual for the Republican Party because so often they have been the one sort of getting into the shutdown.

They know that the party which has demands in going into a shutdown is usually one that loses with the public.

They know that because that's often been them.

So they think this is an opportunity to make the Democrats look like they aren't serious about governing.

But Democrats, on the other hand, do have important policy priorities here.

At the top of their list is one where they think they have an advantage and which is pressing, health care.

REP.

HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-NY): We're deadly serious about addressing the Republican-caused health care crisis because it's a deadly serious issue for the American people, largest cuts in Medicaid in American history, hospitals, nursing homes, and community-based health clinics closing right now.

LISA DESJARDINS: Now, also something that is critical about this right now is that it's a political test.

When you look at the five leaders who met today at the White House, of those five leaders, only two of them have ever been in this position before, President Trump and Chuck Schumer.

So it's a test also of leadership.

LIZ LANDERS: I think I lost IFB.

AMNA NAWAZ: Liz, I'm not sure if you can still hear us.

Let's see if Liz Landers is still with us.

I wanted to ask you about the politics Lisa just mentioned there.

This is a stark difference for President Trump from the shutdown negotiations of his first term.

How is the president and the White House looking at this time around?

Amna, LIZ LANDERS: back in 2018, President Trump oversaw, was the president during the largest -- the longest government shutdown in U.S.

history from 2018 that spanned into 2019.

And at that time, he took responsibility for the shutdown.

He said in a meeting with Leaders Schumer and Speaker Pelosi at the time that he was accepting responsibility for shutting down the government because of border security.

This time, we are hearing a very different tune from the president.

He has repeatedly blamed Democrats over and over.

And a former White House official that I spoke with a few days ago who worked in the first Trump administration noted that it seems like they, the current White House, has learned their lesson on messaging from the first time around from the first Trump administration.

And, Amna, earlier today -- or yesterday, rather, President Trump hinted that some of these shutdowns could impact federal workers in terms of a reduction in force.

We had talked about that last week, the administration outlining that they may permanently be able to fire people using these -- this mechanism, the reduction in force mechanism.

We got new guidance today from the administration that seems to confirm that even more.

It says -- quote -- "The OMB has determined that agencies are authorized to direct employees to perform work necessary to administer the RIF process during the lapse in appropriations."

And, Amna, the vice president was asked about federal workers potentially getting fired just a few moments ago here outside of the White House.

He did not directly answer that question, saying, we have to keep essential services functioning as well as possible.

AMNA NAWAZ: Lisa, meanwhile, we know obviously the politics is one piece of it.

The impact matters to so many more.

Remind us what is at stake here.

LISA DESJARDINS: Yes, let's look at the workers, first of all.

We have roughly two million federal workers that could be impacted.

We don't yet know what the agency-per-agency plan is.

We know there are about 1.3 million active-duty military.

They will be furloughed, be working.

And what that means is no pay during the shutdown, but you would get back pay.

Contractors -- there are probably more than a million federal contractors.

They would not be paid and also not be paid back.

It's key some big things like Social Security will keep going.

We are going to be talking a lot more about this in days ahead, Amna.

AMNA NAWAZ: All right, Lisa Desjardins on Capitol Hill, Liz Landers at the White House for us tonight, thank you both.

Well, as we heard, millions of Americans who rely on health plans under the Affordable Care Act could see their premiums increase if Congress doesn't extend key tax credits, and some could lose their insurance altogether.

William Brangham has more on that part of the story.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Amna, these enhanced tax credits were expanded during the pandemic to make health insurance more affordable for people who buy ACA, or Obamacare, plans.

More than 20 million people enrolled in marketplace plans in 2024, which is a record high.

And most of them received these credits.

The credits were set to expire at the end of, 2022 but were then extended as part of the Inflation Reduction Act.

So, for more on what this means for health care in America and what it costs, I'm joined by Cynthia Cox.

She's vice president and director for the Program on the ACA at KFF.

Cynthia Cox, thank you so much for being here.

We still don't know what's going to happen with these negotiations, but let's say that these tax credits are not extended.

And open enrollment begins very, very soon.

What is likely to happen?

CYNTHIA COX, Program on the ACA Director, KFF: What will happen if these enhanced premium tax credits are not extended by Congress is that millions of people are going to log on to healthcare.gov or their state's marketplace, and they're going to see that their premiums for next year are doubling.

On average, we're expecting people to pay about twice as much as they're currently paying for health insurance if they want to keep the same plan.

They might be able to get a lower-cost plan or pay a little bit less than what they otherwise would have to pay, but that might mean getting a deductible that's several thousand dollars.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: And do we have a sense of how many people could see those staggeringly high increases in their premiums and sort of what slice of the population that might be?

CYNTHIA COX: So what we're looking at are people who buy their own health insurance coverage.

This is not really going to affect people like me or you or many other people who get their insurance through work.

This is really small business owners, farmers and ranchers, other people who work at small companies that don't offer health insurance.

And so, for them, they're buying their own insurance and getting a tax credit to help with the cost.

What we're expecting is that -- about 22 million people are getting one of these enhanced tax credits right now, and their premium costs would double on average or more maybe.

And so this could mean that they have to, say, make a change to their employment and get a different job that does offer health insurance if they can't afford to continue paying for their own insurance or they might become uninsured if they just aren't able to afford to continue that coverage.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: And we know, once people become uninsured, it's not like then they stop getting sick or stop having accidents, that the downstream ripple effects could be enormous if millions of people suddenly lose their insurance.

CYNTHIA COX: That's right.

And so this is already having an effect on insurance markets.

Some insurers are charging even higher premiums for next year because they think that healthier people are going to drop out of the insurance market.

And hospitals are also concerned.

So they're thinking, well, if more people show up to the emergency room who are uninsured, the hospital still has to pay for their care and stabilize them.

So they're concerned that there might have an increase in the number of people who aren't able to pay for their hospitalization.

That might mean that some hospitals, particularly in rural areas, where they're already struggling, might have to close.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Republicans have argued that these tax credits are too costly, that the -- that some people are earning too much money and ought not to receive them, and that this was enacted during the pandemic as a pandemic measure and the pandemic is over.

And I wonder, just from a public policy perspective, what do you make of those arguments?

CYNTHIA COX: So it is true that the tax credits are expensive.

It would cost about $35 billion per year with taxpayer money to extend these enhanced tax credits.

Now, that's really because health insurance is really expensive in the United States.

So making it possible for lower-income and middle-income people to afford to pay for health insurance means that they will need financial help to do so.

And so that's really the trade-off here, is, are people going to be able to afford their insurance, in which case they would need financial help to do so, or is the cost just too much to the federal government?

So most of the people getting these enhanced tax credits are actually very low-income people who live in Southern red states.

Texas, Florida and Georgia account for most of the growth that we're seeing in the marketplaces right now.

But there's also higher-income people who qualify.

That might be, say, a small business owner who otherwise might have to pay 10, 15 or even 20 percent of their income for health insurance just because health insurance is so expensive.

But these enhanced tax credits cap how much they have to pay at about 8.5 percent of their income.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Is there any legislative fix that could address some of these issues with the ACA, assuming these tax credits go away?

CYNTHIA COX: There are a few different critiques of the Affordable Care Act.

I think one is that health insurance, private health insurance, is expensive.

Now, the health insurance is being sold through the Obamacare markets is no more expensive than the health insurance that employers buy and provide to their employees.

It's just that the employer is paying for a large share of that cost and the employee is paying less.

And so when people go on to buy their own health insurance, they often will get sticker shock to see, wow, this is how much health insurance costs.

Well, yes, that's how much it costs.

And that's because health care is just really expensive in the United States.

And so if you want to make health insurance less expensive, then the ways to do that are either to subsidize it with taxpayer dollars or to address the underlying reasons why health care is so expensive.

But that might mean paying hospitals less, paying doctors less.

And that's maybe not as politically popular as subsidizing health insurance.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: All right, that is Cynthia Cox, vice president of KFF.

Cynthia, thank you so much for your time.

CYNTHIA COX: OK.

Thank you.

AMNA NAWAZ: For more on the looming government shutdown and President Trump's expanding use of executive power, I'm joined now by our Politics Monday duo.

That is Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

Great to see you both.

AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: Hello.

AMNA NAWAZ: Let's pick up where some of the reporting and conversations left off there.

Amy, you know we have covered near-shutdown battles before.

We saw back earlier this spring, though, Chuck Schumer decided to vote with Republicans to keep the government open, caught a lot of flak for that.

What is different for Democrats this time around?

Are they approaching this differently?

AMY WALTER: They're absolutely approaching this differently.

And they are looking back to that moment especially, the base of the Democratic Party so fired up, so insistent on party leaders going and facing off against Donald Trump.

They feel like the party itself, as you see those low approval ratings for the Democrats, a lot of that comes from Democratic members of the party who say, our leaders are feckless, they're not fighting hard enough.

So that's a big piece of this.

The second piece is, they found an issue on which to center this argument.

And that's an issue that Democrats have been successful in fighting on, the issue of health care, and so that, as I was talking to a Democrat today, the point that they were making to me is, even if this -- whatever the outcome of this shutdown is, the issue of health care is going to be an important one in 2026, so sort of setting a marker today for a fight that Democrats would like to have going into the midterms.

AMNA NAWAZ: Tam, what about from the White House perspective on this and Republicans?

As Lisa was reporting earlier, they seem to think Democrats will get blamed for a shutdown.

But the last shutdown was on Trump's watch in his first administration.

How are they looking at it?

TAMARA KEITH, National Public Radio: Yes, the White House is approaching this with a high level of confidence that they're going to be able to blame Democrats, for the very reasons that that Amy talked about, because their message is going to be very simply, Democratic members of Congress are bowing to their base, who just wants fight, fight, fight, and that is going to be the White House message.

It already is.

It's going to continue to be.

And this is a different shutdown than in 2018 and 2019.

Back then, it was President Trump who wanted something.

He wanted money for his wall.

And he was trying to leverage a potential government shutdown and ultimately the longest one in U.S.

history to try to get that policy gain.

With this shutdown, Democrats are the ones trying to leverage their votes to get a policy change.

And so that is a big difference.

Some of the words that we're hearing Republicans say, this is a hostage-taking, this is a hijacking, these are words that have come out of Democrats' mouths again and again and again over many years of government shutdowns that we have covered in the past.

AMNA NAWAZ: And I guess fair to say, barring anything major happening over the next 24 hours, chance of a shutdown you would say fairly high?

AMY WALTER: It sure feels very, very high.

TAMARA KEITH: Yes, I mean, the vice president was predicting a shutdown.

Democrats... AMY WALTER: Are acting -- yes.

TAMARA KEITH: ... are acting like there's a shutdown coming.

And, yes, it doesn't -- it just doesn't seem like there's a way for these cars to swerve.

AMNA NAWAZ: Yes.

All right, well, let me ask you about what we have seen over the last few days, because we have seen some really extraordinary actions by the president I want to get some perspective on, publicly pressured his Department of Justice to prosecute his enemies and then his handpicked U.S.

attorney secured indictment against James Comey.

He announced he was sending troops to Portland, Oregon, and to Memphis, Tennessee.

The secretary of defense federalizes National Guard troops to do that.

As you have both seen, constitutional law experts, historians, a lot of folks are saying this is very dangerous precedent that's being set here.

Amy, is any of that resonating with the American public?

AMY WALTER: Well I went back and I looked at Donald Trump's approval rating on average over the course of his first term, which was 43 percent approved, 53 percent disapprove.

Today, he's at 43 percent approved, 54 percent disapprove.

In other words, opinions about Donald Trump have been pretty settled for a long time.

You could argue they were settled way before his first term ended and they haven't really budged that much.

He's consolidated support among Republicans, which means he has a little bit of a higher floor than he used to, because Republicans are completely united around him.

There's not much he can do to lose them, if anything.

But his ceiling is also low because there is still an ingrained significant percent of the public, whether we want to say it's 54 percent or 51 percent, that say they don't like and they don't approve of how he handles his job as president.

And that -- over the course of his entire presidency, a lot happened.

We had COVID, we had the protests, we had all these different things.

It kind of still stays there.

So to say, is it breaking through or not, it is, but is it changing people's minds about him?

No.

AMNA NAWAZ: Tam, what's your take?

TAMARA KEITH: The president has right now control over Congress.

And he has a very compliant Congress.

Republicans in Congress barely even at this point, like, say they disapprove of anything that he's doing.

And if they happen to stick their head up like Rand Paul has on occasion, the president just smacks them right back down.

So that's what he has right now.

And at the same time, he has this relatively low approval rating that he's had forever.

He's behaving like he rules all and that he is extremely popular.

And he can do that because he has that compliant Congress.

But as an indication of the president and the White House is concerned about this, you can look at the efforts in Texas and other states, Missouri just over the weekend, to gerrymander to try to get more Republicans in Congress or at least to not have Republicans lose the House and the Senate, because, if they do, then there could be consequences for the president.

AMNA NAWAZ: Before we go, can I get you both to weigh in very quickly on what we saw with Eric Adams in the New York mayoral race ending his reelection bid?

Does Adams leaving, Amy, help the independent here, Andrew Cuomo, to beat the Democrat, Zohran Mamdani, which the White House hopes it does?

What's your take?

AMY WALTER: Yes, Adams wasn't taking that much of the vote in the first place, but it certainly consolidates the non-Mamdani wing of the Democratic Party.

At this point, though, while the gap could be closing, Mamdani, I think, has a benefit of enthusiasm on his side, even though many of his voters are not traditionally the kinds of voters that turn out election after election.

TAMARA KEITH: And President Trump, I think this is one of those heads up, I win, tails, you lose.

It's one of those situations because, if Mamdani wins, then President Trump has the foil he's been after.

And if he loses, then he can say he somehow got what he wanted.

AMNA NAWAZ: Tamara Keith, Amy Walter, always great to start the week with you.

Thank you.

AMY WALTER: You're welcome.

TAMARA KEITH: You're welcome.

AMNA NAWAZ: At a surprise New York film festival performance last night, rock legend Bruce Springsteen publicly expressed concern for the political climate in the country, saying -- quote -- "We're living through particularly dangerous times."

But as the Trump administration increasingly targets free speech and the arts, musicians and artists of all kinds are facing a difficult decision, whether to speak out or keep their heads down.

Senior arts correspondent Jeffrey Brown looks at some of what is and isn't happening for our series Art in Action, exploring the intersection of art and democracy as part of our Canvas coverage.

PATRICK MARTINEZ, Artist: I'm wanting to represent the time that we're living in and not look away.

JEFFREY BROWN: Patrick Martinez is a multimedia artist born, trained and making art in Los Angeles, who started telling the story of the America he lives in well before Donald Trump's 2016 election.

PATRICK MARTINEZ: A lot of my work deals with police brutality, police murder.

I think that my upbringing informs my choices.

When I choose to paint the landscape, I take objects and materials that are from areas that are discounted.

When I produce work, a lot of that messaging tends to put me in a light that people will label me an activist, but I'm more just kind of paying attention.

JEFFREY BROWN: These days, Martinez's work is exhibited in major museums, including the Whitney in New York and the Los Angeles Museum of Contemporary Art.

But when President Trump ordered ICE raids in his community and the National Guard to Los Angeles, Martinez responded, photographing his neon works, printing them on corrugated plastic and handing them out at protests.

PATRICK MARTINEZ: It's self-preservation to be making this work, right?

But it also shows you what I thought about what was happening in these times.

And me sharing it helps people cope with everything that they're kind of going through right now.

And if they don't have the words to kind of come up with, they can use my work as a placeholder.

JEFFREY BROWN: But while some individual artists are addressing the moment, the larger art and museum worlds have mostly avoided directly confronting the Trump administration.

Robin Pogrebin is a culture reporter for The New York Times.

ROBIN POGREBIN, The New York Times: You see a kind of -- much more of a cowed, capitulating stance on the part of the art world, I think a sense of resignation.

It may be just something they have to hunker down and weather for the next four years under Trump.

You have seen a few isolated examples.

Amy Sherald is a prominent artist who upon hearing that one of her paintings was possibly going to be pulled by the Smithsonian board from a upcoming show at the National Portrait Gallery, decided to cancel the entire exhibition.

That was a very bold move.

It's an example of an artist who can kind of afford to take that risk.

She is a very solid success.

JEFFREY BROWN: The Smithsonian, for the record, says it was adding a video to accompany a painting, not taking the painting out of the exhibit.

BRUCE SPRINGSTEEN, Musician: The American that I love, the American that I have sung to you now... JEFFREY BROWN: Among prominent musicians who've spoken or sung their protest, Bruce Springsteen... BRUCE SPRINGSTEEN: ... is currently in the hands of a corrupt, incompetent, and treasonous administration.

JEFFREY BROWN: ... whose roar of words with Donald Trump dates back to his first term and was reignited this year by the rock star while on tour in Europe.

The back-and-forth got so heated, the president threatened to investigate Springsteen and Beyonce for appearances they made on the 2024 campaign trail for his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris.

And Sheryl Crow, whose song "The New Normal," she said, is a response to a political moment she describes as so unbelievably bizarre.

Singer-songwriter Ani DiFranco, long known for her activism, is still at it with new urgency, she says.

But she also wonders why the music world has been mostly quiet.

ANI DIFRANCO, Musician: Why aren't there more?

Why isn't protest music the top of the pops like it was in other eras of American political turmoil and change and evolution.

I think one thing that we are all suffering from is fatigue, crisis fatigue and doom fatigue.

MANUEL OLIVER, Activist: Tell me now what happened.

JEFFREY BROWN: Manuel Oliver was thrust into the worlds of art and theater after the killing of his 17-year-old son, Joaquin, in the mass shooting in Parkland Florida on Valentine's Day 2018.

MANUEL OLIVER: In order to scream out the urgency of fixing what happened to Joaquin, I found art as an excellent way of sending that message.

And that could be painting sculptures and in this case theater.

What happened on Joaquin's side?

JEFFREY BROWN: In 2019, Oliver produced the first version of his one-man play, "Guac."

In it, he tells the story of Joaquin's vibrant, but short life, his horrific murder, and Oliver's fight to honor his son through advocacy for gun reform.

MANUEL OLIVER: He is the one that is motivating us and, I will prove it to you.

JEFFREY BROWN: The play is always evolving, and so when ICE deportations of undocumented migrants escalated, Oliver felt the need to respond.

One such addition, a tweet by his son written shortly before he was killed that Oliver believes is especially relevant today.

In the post, Joaquin calls out President Trump's first-term policy of separating undocumented migrant families.

MANUEL OLIVER: We thought that it was very important that if we're talking about Joaquin, we should add Joaquin's own words, and so people will understand this as an issue that Joaquin would be really mad about.

JEFFREY BROWN: Another change reflects the moment for Manuel Oliver himself as a naturalized U.S.

citizen originally from Venezuela.

MANUEL OLIVER: I'm one of those guys that has been targeted as criminals and bad hombres.

So, on the play, I had a line.

I won't be deported for doing this (EXPLETIVE DELETED).

I correct myself now, which I didn't before.

Like, wait a minute, I am an American citizen, but I still can be deported.

And that's a new reality.

SAM JAY, Comedian: He didn't even get in office yet, he was like, yes, we taking Canada.

(LAUGHTER) SAM JAY: And I was like, I kind of agree with that.

JEFFREY BROWN: Sam Jay, a former writer for "Saturday Night Live" with her own HBO and Netflix specials, has long used comedy to make sense of current events.

SAM JAY: I think mainly my place is to be honest, to tell my truth from my perspective.

I tend not to lean right or left in anything that I say or do.

And I kind of like to live in the gray.

JEFFREY BROWN: Jay's new stand-up show is titled "We the People," tackling subjects such as race and social media in America to try to figure out why the country is so divided.

SAM JAY: I felt like the conversation was kind of stuck as far as where we are as Americans, where we're going as this democracy.

JEFFREY BROWN: And how does comedy do that in ways that other art forms don't?

SAM JAY: I think because comedy is kind of main-veining art in a little bit of a way.

It's like a direct conversation.

JIMMY KIMMEL, Host, "Jimmy Kimmel Live": We hit some new lows over the weekend.

JEFFREY BROWN: Late-night comedy, of course, has become the stuff of 24-hour news, with the short-lived suspension of Jimmy Kimmel's show and the cancellation of Stephen Colbert's.

Do you think that will impact other comedians?

SAM JAY: I mean, I don't think there's a way it won't.

Does it lean towards people getting more active and going like, hey, something scary is going on, or do people duck and hide?

JEFFREY BROWN: What about for you?

SAM JAY: I'm going to just keep doing my shows and saying what I believe in and getting on stage for as long as I'm allowed to do that.

JEFFREY BROWN: One prominent player in all this still... ACTOR: A dictator from the Middle East.

Oh, relax, God.

JEFFREY BROWN: ... "South Park," which has garnered attention and eyeballs with its skewering of President Trump since it began its 27th season this summer.

What's next for the arts world as a whole?

The New York Times' Robin Pogrebin: ROBIN POGREBIN: This is a new day we're living in, where even those who would seem to be empowered and independent of Trump just don't want to poke that bear.

What I'm wondering is whether or not this will have some really lasting effects that will have to be built back from, whether they will feel more cautious going forward.

SAM JAY: It's stressful, bro.

JEFFREY BROWN: For the "PBS News Hour," I'm Jeffrey Brown.

AMNA NAWAZ: Another terrific report from Jeff Brown there.

Remember, there's a lot more online, including a look at Las Vegas' declining tourism and what that means for other U.S.

cities.

That is on our YouTube page.

And that is the "News Hour" for tonight.

I'm Amna Nawaz.

On behalf of the entire "News Hour" team, thank you for joining us.