- This is a production of WEDU PBS, Tampa, St.

Petersburg, Sarasota.

[Music] Election day is November the 3rd.

And early voting is already underway across the Tampa Bay region.

How close is the race to be Florida's next governor?

Who will Floridians send to the U.S.

Senate?

And how are new congressional lines shaping races here in Tampa Bay?

There's a new development in the property tax cut proposal this week.

Florida's Senate president said he plans to vote no.

And in St.

Petersburg, it's a runoff for mayor.

More than 4 in 10 voters picked neither of the finalists this summer.

So who will win their votes?

Now joining me are three people who keep an eye on Florida politics for a living.

We're helping you make sense of your ballot.

Next on Florida This Week.

[Music] Welcome back everybody.

I'm Lissette Campos.

Election day is less than two weeks away to help us sort through some of the closely watched races.

We have invited Mitch Perry, senior reporter for the Florida Phoenix.

Jackson McMillan, a consumer protection attorney and a Democratic strategist, and Aakash Patel, president of Elevate Inc.

and a Republican.

Thanks to all of you for being here.

We want to start with the very top of the ballot.

We are talking about the race for Florida governor.

Of course, Republican Byron Donalds, a member of Congress, faces Democrat David Jolly, a former Republican congressman.

Two polls show a tie, four shows Donalds ahead by 2 to 11 points.

The newest one from the University of North Florida has Donalds up by two.

Mitch, I want to ask you the two polls.

Why the gap between the advance.

- I think polling has never been more discredited, quite frankly.

I mean, I just really, as a reporter can't really trust it right now to know what's happening here.

David Jolly has emphasized going back to the primary that he was basically tied, if not, quote unquote, winning over Byron Donalds.

I think it's been important for him and his supporters to show that he's actually in this race, which he absolutely is, which is very different since 2018.

I do think it's competitive.

Look, I think David Jolly is doing a good job in the respect that he is vastly being out fund raised.

The latest numbers this week were $145 million of Byron Donalds has in his bank account or has had David Jolly I think roughly between 20 and 25 million.

Donalds has already spent over 100 million and ads right now.

And you see it.

You're watching television right now this weekend.

Constant ads, and most of them are Byron Donalds ads, right?

You might see the occasional David Jolly ad.

He just doesn't have the funds to do that.

So Byron has really been, you know, that's that's the success you have when you can raise so much money.

- So Jackson, I want to focus on Jolly for a minute.

If he wins, he will become the first Democratic governor since 1999.

That was Buddy Mackay, who assumed the position for just 24 days after the late John Chiles passed away in office suddenly.

What is the strongest case, in your opinion, for jolly to change this dynamic?

- Well, I think the first biggest thing is, personally, as an attorney, we're always looking at the Supreme Court.

Of course, the governor gets to have a big say in who ends up on the Florida Supreme Court and other benches around the state.

I think that makes a big difference when you're talking about rooting out corruption that has plagued the Florida Republican Party, as we've seen over the last decade, with scandals like the alleged Hope Florida incident and that kind of thing.

I think having someone at the top who can kind of curb that corruption in the courts, who can curb it in the non-profits, who can curb it in campaign finance.

Having that level of a democratic watchdog at the top is, in my mind, the biggest selling point for David Jolly.

Aakash on the other side of the coin let's talk about Donalds.

If he wins, that makes five Republican governors in a row.

What is the strongest case for him to keep that trend going?

- Well, the legislature's Republican, right.

This is we have a House and Senate majority Republican by a lot, not even by a little.

So I think Donalds is doing the right thing.

And what you're seeing between the two campaigns is Donalds actually leveraging his wife, Erica.

Donalds is on the other side of the state, talking to people, talking to voters, giving speeches.

She was at the Economic Club in Miami the other day on a panel.

I don't see, you know, David Jolly's spouse out there.

I think that matters to voters.

And the other part of it is rural voters.

We talked about the turnout is obviously going to be a big part of this.

The 50 city bus tour that Donalds rolled out in Plant City Monday that we were talking about before the show.

I mean, he's going to the areas of town where there are strategic folks that are in the statehouse and Senate that are getting a chance to campaign with them, and he's helping candidates along the way.

Underlying getting the vote out.

I think that's important.

- We are hearing from voters that are still undecided.

When you look at the state, which areas do you think might we see the most dynamic change in terms of who they support, if they go for jolly or if they go for Donalds?

Aakash I'll start with you.

- I think the Panhandle we saw with the Republican primary and how some of them would have some of those voters.

I think 17 counties voted for Lieutenant Governor Collins.

I think some of those Panhandle folks, people think jolly will win because Gwen Graham's name is strung out there.

But I think Donalds wins those.

- Jackson, what are you looking at?

- I'm looking at two places.

The first biggest one is Miami-Dade, of course.

I think we've seen a dramatic shift in immigrants and descendants from immigrants in terms of how they're viewing the Republican Party under Donald Trump.

It is hard to when they have campaigned on being who's closest with Trump for, gosh, nearly a decade now.

Right.

Um, being tied to him now appears to be a liability and could peel voters away from him.

The second place I'm looking at is Pinellas County.

It's David Jolly's home turf.

He was a he was a congressman there.

He represented them, albeit as a Republican.

Right.

And I think that Pinellas is a bellwether county.

We have seen that it is consistently predicted.

The direction Pinellas goes seems to be the direction the rest of the nation goes in every major election cycle for some time.

So I think my eyes will be on Pinellas as vote by mail and early vote rolls in.

- I would agree that South Florida.

I think that is a place where really the Republicans with the Hispanic vote has really changed the dynamic of Florida politics in the last decade or so.

And that is, as Jackson mentioned, with the immigration, the mass deportation program under President Trump.

That is very unpopular.

We saw that with Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar a few weeks ago with that dramatic ad in front of the White House saying, President Trump, please, which changed some of this.

Um, and I think that actually is a very dynamic race down there as well.

So I think that is something that potentially really could see some voters go more to Democratic than we haven't seen in recent cycles.

Then again, you know, the Byron Donalds people are working hand in hand with the Trump administration.

You know, they go beyond that in terms of like, they, of course, removed Maduro, right?

That was very popular now for Venezuelan voters down there.

Now, we haven't seen the results of an election or anything like that yet.

- They are watching it.

- Yeah.

And there's even the threats about doing something to Cuba.

I mean, that's like so you have like foreign policy concerns in a place like South Florida that you don't really see in a state election.

- So next we're going to pivot to the U.S.

Senate race.

Republican Ashley Moody, appointed to the seat by Governor Ron DeSantis in January of 2025, faces Democrat Angie Nixon, a state representative from Jacksonville.

Polls have ranged from a tie between Moody and Nixon to a ten point lead for Moody.

The newest from the University of North Florida, has Moody at a 49% and Nixon at 45%.

The prediction market platforms like Kalshi, for example, have Moody with a sizable lead.

I know that this is typically not numbers that we look at, but it's really a race that many folks did not think would be as close as it is.

Quickly, I'd like to get your take on that.

- Real quick, let me say this.

Um, I, you know, I saw Jackson, Angie Nixon did a big tour with Bernie Sanders over the past weekend.

Um, she is bringing out voters that may not have been coming out to vote for David Jolly at all.

She is definitely boosting his chances whether she wins or not, I'm not sure.

But you saw a lot of young people there.

Uh, some people of color there that maybe again, David Jolly a little too bland for them, but nevertheless.

So she's energized that progressive base which still exists.

Okay.

They're by far not the dominant part of the Florida Democratic Party, but it's a it's a it's a part of the party that has been very much feeling not at odds with the overall.

- My question to Jackson and to Aakash is the same one, and that is, what's the biggest challenge that each of these candidates are going to face.

- To Mitch's point?

David Jolly doesn't appear with Angie Nixon, and that's a huge issue for Democrats because now you're basically pitting one against each other.

So yes, you're right, Mitch, some people will come out to vote for Angie, but will they vote for David Jolly?

I don't think so.

Byron Donalds comes to campaign with Ashley Moody.

In fact, she stopped by that Plant City tour, and that's her backyard and even campaigning together all throughout the state.

And she posts about it.

You find these ideologies between Angie Nixon and David Jolly are opposite.

I think that's going to hurt Angie Nixon.

I think that's why Ashley Moody is an incumbent.

Obviously you know that and I think she'll win.

Jackson.

- Biggest challenge for the candidate.

- Well, I'm actually going to push back on that a little bit and say that the reason why they're not campaigning together isn't because necessarily that David Jolly wants to stay away from her so much, is the fact that Angie Nixon is running such an incredible, um, presence.

You can't hardly scroll on Instagram right now without having seeing half a dozen influencers who normally don't touch politics, talking about how excited they are to vote for Angie Nixon, and they'll bring their followers along with them.

I think the jolly campaign is struggling to keep up.

You can't.

You can't fill a... We saw in Gainesville, we saw in Melbourne, we saw in Tampa, we saw these massive overflow crowds all showing up to celebrate Angie Nixon and her candidacy there.

I think part of the polls that why they're getting this wrong.

And I want to note you brought up Kalshi before.

Kalshi at one point less than three weeks before the her primary had Angie Nixon at 1% likelihood to win.

They underestimated her then.

I think they're underestimating her now.

These polls, the ones that are showing her.

If you look at the cross tabs, even the closest ones, in my opinion, are substantially undervaluing voters who normally don't turn out in midterms.

Who will, I guarantee you, especially after the millions in free media she's gotten over the last week, turn out to vote for Angie Nixon.

And I think they will vote for David Jolly as well.

Don't underestimate the power of a little D or a little R next to someone's name.

- Tampa's congressional races are also being watched very closely.

They are being sought after with a new map this year in District 14 in Hillsborough County.

Democrat Kathy Castor, who's been in Congress since 2007, faces Republican Mike Beltran, a former state representative.

The new congressional map took out all of Pinellas County and large parts of Tampa, replacing them with Republican leaning suburbs of Brandon of Ruskin, Plant City, also Fish Hawk.

Pollsters were split in August, ranging from a toss up to leaning Republican to leaning Democrat.

Mitch there's been so much more movement in this race than most analysts expected.

- Uh, this is a fascinating race.

In fact, I wrote earlier this week that I thought I said it was 8 million.

I think now I read something $20 million has been spent.

And I think anybody watching the baseball playoffs and Hillsborough or, you know, college football has seen these ads over and over and over again between both candidates.

But all these outside groups that are putting money into it.

This is a really hard fought seat.

Kathy Castor has been there for 20 years.

This is not a good thing for her in perspective.

Like people are kind of like, you know, anti-incumbent.

So this is a huge challenge for her.

And you're right.

This is like plus nine plus ten Trump district.

So theoretically, this should be a Mike Beltran seat to win.

And yet the odds makers The election people like the Cook Political Report have all put this at a toss up, which is a remarkable thing to say about Castor's ability to perhaps pull this off.

I'm not sure.

I don't know, I really don't.

It's so interesting to see, and it's a really hard, like I said, hard fought, hard fought campaign.

I did a debate actually, they've only had a couple debates a couple weeks ago.

That debate, it was great.

I mean, I think it went very well.

And, you know, try to do it straight up the middle there and get them both on, on these issues.

And, uh, and they did another one last week at Tiger Bay and that's it.

I think Mike Beltran wanted more debates.

Kathy Castro had not debated anybody for two decades since she won.

That seat was an open seat 20 years ago.

But she's had to.

I mean, she has to do it this time around because she's trying to appeal to more voters.

- Jackson, what do you think that Kathy has to do in order to win this?

- I think that she has to really get out on the doors.

And that is honestly, as much as I love the congresswoman, my biggest concern, she hasn't had to fight a real campaign in a long, long time, including she's had a few one off Republican opponents or primary opponents, but nothing with real muscle.

Certainly not like the money we're seeing coming in on Mike Beltran and a lot of her on the ground senior campaign staff have, because, in furtherance of their careers, moved on to other races, other groups, that kind of thing.

The people who she's fighting alongside now are not some battle hardened team who she's been in the trenches with for decades.

These this all new blood.

Um, and I think that there have been trends across the country.

We're seeing money isn't everything these days.

I mean, if it was, Kamala Harris would be president and Tom Steyer would be our next governor of California.

Right?

- What does Bill trying to have to do to three things.

- Number one, people are tired of people with being Congress forever.

And, you know, you said this at Tiger Bay, the establishment, Kathy has been there for two decades.

That's a long time.

We need new blood.

Representative Beltran.

Also, the district was more favored towards where he was in the house.

And so a lot of these voters, name ID, they know him, and he's brought great, great results when he was in the statehouse, in that district.

And the last thing is governor DeSantis, I was with governor DeSantis and Representative Beltran last week.

DeSantis is out there stumping for Beltran, And he's still power.

He's still the Republican.

You know, the main guy in the Republican Party.

And people love him.

And I think that's going to get a lot of voter turnout because DeSantis, Beltran, they're gonna vote for Beltran.

- Another seat that hasn't had a shift.

A change in 20 years is District 16.

It's open for the first time.

As I said, in almost 20 years, on the ballot are three candidates Republican Sydney Gruters.

She's a first time candidate backed by President Trump.

We have the Democrat, Kelly Kirschner, a former Sarasota mayor, and we have Mark Davis, who has no party affiliation.

He's an Air Force veteran and a small business owner.

Um, how do you all see this race?

There's so much focus on this because again, no one has had to really fight for it for 20 years.

- And Sydney Gruters, we should note, is, of course, the wife of Joe Gruters, the Republican National Committee chairperson, chairman.

And that is a big deal because it's easy for Kelly Kirchner to really associate the National Republican Party and Donald Trump with Sydney Gruters, who was endorsed by Donald Trump.

And I think if we're going to see anything in the Tampa Bay area anyway where we see that Donald Trump's policies have really been unpopular, it's going to be manifested in this district, which is an unusual district.

The way it was drawn up, it includes parts of St.

Petersburg.

St.

Petersburg, actually, which of course is a little more liberal than some of the traditional parts.

- And now it cuts across seven counties from Pinellas all the way to crazy.

- Drawing district, obviously designed to.

Well, again, it's still Republican leaning.

Um, and Kirschner, I think has done a good job.

And in fact, I saw apparently he was on Newsmax earlier this week.

So he's trying to get himself out there for sure.

Um, I am really looking forward to seeing how this thing turns out, because if the Democrats do have a good year in the congressional and legislative races in Florida, that's one place we might see that happen.

Aakash...Kirschner has said that they are a moderate Democrat, a fiscal conservative.

Does that pitch work in that district?

- No.

And that's a lot of transplants.

And Kirschner was mayor almost ten, 15 years ago.

I mean, there's a lot of new places, new people that are in that area.

Gruters has not only been a state senator for, for, for Florida and been a Florida State University trustee.

And of course, now he's chairman of the Republican Party.

He was also chair of the Florida Republican Party.

So the Gruters name carries a lot of weight.

And Sydney Gruters worked at New College.

I mean, she's got a lot of deep roots in that area.

I think this is hands down Sydney Gruters race to win.

- Jackson, your thoughts?

I think the fact that the Gruters name has been tied to the Republican Party, which functionally we're learning now, means corruption and ripping immigrant families apart now isn't going to necessarily be a good thing.

But I will also say that there is a lot of money that comes with that gruters name, right?

I think Mitch is right.

I think if we're going to see a dramatic shift, we will see it potentially in this district.

However, I do want to note, I don't think this is a battle of Kirschner versus Gruters so much as a battle of a, um, how the public is feeling about Donald Trump.

It's a referendum on him.

Right?

And I think that there's not enough money being spent on Kirschner to make an argument otherwise.

- Are there enough undecided voters who like neither Republican or Democrats to give that third name on the on the ballot a chance?

- No.

I know the NPA candidate there.

I don't think he is going to go anywhere.

But I will say, mentioning Kelly Kirschner has been endorsed by a couple of big time Republicans.

I say big time, maybe.

People say they're not.

Dan Miller, who was the congressperson there, uh, in the '90s, maybe again.

- It's too it's too old that no one remembers yesterday.

And they were talking about 20, ten years ago.

- We're going to move on to District 13 in Pinellas County.

Voters tend to lean Republican.

The incumbent Republican, Anna Paulina Luna, faces Democrat Leela Gray.

Mitch, what's worth watching in this particular race?

- Gray.

In fact, I saw her the other day.

She had Katherine Clark, who was the highest ranking Democrat in the House campaign with her veteran event.

Leela Gray is a retired brigadier army general.

She comes with a lot of military credentials, of course.

Anna Luna also has a military background.

Yeah, absolutely.

Um, you know, originally I thought Anna Paulina Luna has this easy because Democrats have come with a lot of fire in the last two times that Luna was on the ballot in '22 and '24.

And they came up way short, ten points, I think, both times.

Uh, I do think again, with the trends moving towards Democrats, she's going to be more competitive there.

Will, will she be able to take it?

I don't know, I'm not predicting any races here, but I think it's a more competitive race than now you know, than people expected.

I saw on a couple of weeks ago, she said that her own polling shows that she's no problem at all.

You know, she'll she'll win it easily.

I do think it's, uh, we'll agree is a good candidate though.

- She's everywhere.

She's a fighter for Pinellas County.

And you know, whether you're Republican or Democrat, you see her out there and she's been a great champion for challenging some of congressional laws.

I mean, you see what she's doing.

I mean, I think a lot of people across the aisle like her, and I think she's got this.

She's going to win this in a slam dunk.

This isn't even a competition.

- Well, she's very much a MAGA Republican and maybe people love that.

- But she's a fighter for what she was elected for.

She brings value to Pinellas County, whether you're Republican or Democrat.

And that's what they elect her.

- Jackson, I'm going to give you the last word.

- No, she's a fighter, uh, poking up and trying to find alien files that no one asked for.

Well, they can't pay their bills.

That's what she's a fighter for, right.

And I brought up earlier how much a team matters on a congressional campaign.

It's hard to get really good talent from outside of the state into Florida.

And I can tell you, I have fought side by side with some of the guys who Leela Gray has brought in to lead and run her campaign on the ground.

They are heavy hitters from across the country.

It is hard to bring that kind of talent to Florida, and she has imported some of the best that you can bring and also have some local talent as well.

I think their field game is going to be really strong, and you can't hardly turn on the TV to watch a great game in Pinellas without seeing the ads bashing Ana Paulina for cozying up to special interests and obsessing over UFOs.

- Yet she's fighting to stop, to get a ban, to stop Congress members to talk trade, which is like no one stands up to do that.

- That is one of the biggest issues, by the way, in the 2026 campaign on the congressional level was banning stock trading.

Everybody wants that.

- Anybody can file a bill.

She called congressional hearings on UFOs.

Any member of.

Where were the congressional hearings on insider trading?

- Well, they're actually another bill, not hers.

Another bill was.

- For some voters.

- The Senate.

- It's interesting how voters focus on one item of importance more than another.

So who knows what they're going to base their decision on.

I do want to switch gears now to, to, to share with our viewers some very important developments on the proposed Amendment 3.

That's a property tax exemption measure.

This week, the State Senate President, Ben Albritton, said that he will vote no.

The Senate put the amendment on the ballot in June, which he praised at the time.

Governor Ron DeSantis also held an event in Miami just this past week on Wednesday to promote this, and a new University of North Florida poll released on Wednesday found that 50% support it, 30% oppose it, and we have 14% of voters unsure.

According to this poll, the state constitutional amendment we want to know does need 60% to pass.

Mitch, you reported this when the Senate president said that he was going to vote no.

What was the reaction?

- Uh, well, DeSantis was very dismissive and said, it just shows that this is a bottom up and not top down initiative that the people in Tallahassee, even Republicans.

Ron DeSantis has been very critical of saying they don't really support this.

I will say for DeSantis, this is an interesting argument.

Now he's coming a little more up front.

You know, being a big Republican voice on this, he said the other day in Miami that this is a way to address the affordability issue.

Another one of the huge issues in this 2026 campaign, he says, you know, other people talk about what they're going to do.

This thing does do that.

And it will for people who support this.

Ben Albritton.

I don't understand him.

I mean, maybe because you could say that now he knows that the sheriffs are against this and small communities like he represents, you know, are against this.

Um, this maybe leads to the argument that there wasn't enough vetting of this when they passed this back in early June, I believe it was.

Um, but he led the way, the Senate passed it 30 to 9, the same measure that now he's against.

It's kind of interesting.

- It's an about face.

Well, we're going to make sure that we get to the mayor's race in the city of St.

Petersburg.

Take a look.

Mayor Ken Welch and former Governor Charlie Crist face off on November the 3rd.

Officially, the race is nonpartisan.

Crist finished first in August with 35% of the votes to Welch's 21%.

At a September public forum.

The two clashed on access to the mayor's office on the current mayor's record, the Tangerine Plaza redevelopment project, and whether the city should run its own electric utility.

This one folks are watching very closely.

Aakash, how do you see this?

- Again, I think it's a slam dunk.

I think former Governor Crist wins this race.

And that's because he's been out there.

He's been getting bipartisan support.

He's been raising money.

He's been, you know going to raise games and going to the little coffee shops.

And he's gotten people together to walk him to the polls when he went to vote the other day.

I just think he's just not doing... Mayor Welch even had an extra year in office and is still not doing the campaign things that he needed to be doing.

And Crist saw that and got way ahead of it.

And he's going to win.

- Jackson what do you think Chris has to do to get to that 50%?

- I think that he's going to frankly take it slam dunk.

I think Welch is.

- On something like that.

- Right?

Yeah.

I think Welch is.

- One of my there's a lot of issues with his administration.

I think people there's people don't trust him to handle major issues.

There's been a lot of promises, not a lot of deliverance.

However.

Um, he also like we have to remember go back to when he was elected initially he didn't.

I would argue that his campaign didn't win.

Darden Rice's campaign lost.

Right.

Hurricanes she was ahead, had major advantages endorsement money, etc.

fumbled the bag with, um, certain messages that were sent out by her campaign.

Um, and then he kind of popped up into that top slot.

Meanwhile, you've got Charlie Crist, who is probably one of the most veteran campaigners in the entire state of Florida.

Right?

He is.

He is a force to be reckoned with.

Meanwhile, Ken Welch slipped into first in his last run.

Right.

I, I think that Charlie Crist has got it.

I do have some concerns over the amount of influence the developers and other special interests might have over him, but I have worked with Governor Crist before, and I think ultimately he'll be able to make the right decisions.

I just hope he always puts the people of St.

Pete first.

- We're going to move on now to early voting.

Plenty of voters are not waiting for November 3rd.

Early voting is underway in Hillsborough, Pinellas and across the Tampa Bay region.

As of October 22nd, the Florida Division of Elections has reported close to 1.7 million ballots have been cast.

That's about 33% in the in-person early voting.

Counties open early voting on different days, so the comparison is approximate in the short time that we have left.

I do want each of you to cover a race that has not been getting a lot of exposure and you think voters should know about.

Aakash, what is the race you're watching?

There's a statehouse race in the Tampa area.

The former representative Susan Valdes House District, I think it's 65, but it's a representative 64 sorry.

Um, Dan Weldon versus Luis Salazar.

And it's a for his first.

Obama won in that district.

Biden won that district, and then Trump won this most recently.

And I think it's going to be very close, but well then wins by two points.

- Jackson, what's the race that you think is not getting enough attention?

- I'm looking at Florida 26th Congressional District.

This is Nicole Locklin, is the Democrat running against one of Florida's longtime incumbents, I believe, the oldest term incumbent in the House.

That's Mario Diaz-Balart.

Of course, that district is over 40% either immigrants or descended by immigrants.

That population is very displeased with the Trump administration.

Locklin is very impressive.

She cleared her primary, didn't have a primary.

She's a young attorney.

She's well spoken.

And she her campaign has raised a decent amount of money, nearly $500,000 in small dollar donations.

- In Senate District 14 race in Hillsborough County between Democrat Brian Nathan, Republican Josie Tomko, a rematch of the special election back in March, where Nathan shocked the political world by defeating Tom Cowell in an eight nine Republican seat.

We'll see what happens again in November 3rd.

- Thank you so much for coming in.

We really appreciate your time.

Again.

Thank you to our panel.

Aakash Patel, Jackson McMillan and Mitch Perry.

We know you've got plenty of choices for your news and information, and we thank you for choosing us.

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