- This is a production of WEDU PBS, Tampa, St.

Petersburg Sarasota.

[music] - Elections are a cornerstone of American democracy.

And now a fight is underway in Washington and in Florida over how you register to vote and cast a ballot.

We break down the federal and state proposals to overhaul voting.

What the legislation says, what it does, and the facts that complicate the picture.

Midterm elections are officially underway nationwide as primaries are called.

We look at beefed-up security being proposed for some races in Florida.

Which Republican leads the pack for governor?

Can a Democrat win in a state that elected Trump for president by double digits?

What new polls show, and a major shift for public sector unions may be coming to the state of Florida.

Our thought leadership series continues, this time with an eminent surgeon and subject expert on an alarming cancer trend that's targeting younger patients.

All that and more is next on Florida This Week.

[music] Welcome back, everybody.

I'm Lissette Campos.

Joining us on the panel this week are Michael Van Sickler, political editor for the Tampa Bay Times; legal expert and professor Tara Newsom; and Lindsay Polega, an attorney and vice president of the League of Women Voters for the Greater St.

Petersburg area.

In Washington and here in Florida, lawmakers are taking aim at one particular issue verifying U.S.

citizenship in elections.

Two proposals, one federal and one state are advancing at the same time.

We break down for you what they would do, how they differ, and we compare the reasons being given for this move against actual data on the behavior of voters at the federal level.

It's called the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act or the SAVE Act.

It would require documentary proof of U.S.

citizenship.

A passport or birth certificate would be required to register to vote in federal elections.

It would also require photo identification when casting a ballot.

Citizenship is already required under federal law to vote.

The SAVE Act would change how that eligibility is verified.

In Florida, House Bill 991 takes a similar approach.

The bill requires citizenship verification through state and federal databases.

It would place voters whose citizenship cannot be immediately confirmed into an unverified status, preventing them from voting until documentation is provided.

Both measures rely on the same premise that non-citizen voting poses a significant threat to election integrity.

But extensive research by state election officials, academic researchers, and bipartisan policy groups consistently find that non-citizen voting is exceedingly rare.

Large-scale studies of millions of ballots have shown confirmed cases amounting to fractions of a percent, and often the result of data errors, not intentional fraud.

Existing law already makes illegal voting a felony, punishable by fines, prison time, and for non-citizens...deportation.

At the same time, documentation-based requirements have been shown to block eligible voters who lack immediate access to passports or birth certificates.

It often includes seniors, low-income voters, students and women whose legal names have changed after marriage.

As for the next steps, the SAVE Act has passed the U.S.

House and now faces uncertain prospects in the Senate.

Florida's HB 991 has cleared the House and must still pass the Senate before reaching the governor.

And, Michael, I'd like to start with you.

There's so much going on on the federal and the state level.

What are the most important guts of these proposals, in your opinion?

- Well, I would keep an eye out for the state legislation.

So it did pass the House.

And it's it's clearly going to pass the Senate.

It's got a lot of support in the Republican controlled legislature, and it would affect those who are registering to vote for the first time or they need to move.

Um, and some like if you have a name change, let's say you get married and you're changing your name, uh, you would have to bring a birth certificate or passport.

There's a lot of people who don't have ready access to that.

And so there's a there's a concern, a very viable concern that this would affect people who are just trying to exercise their right to vote.

- So when you look at what's going on in the House bill and the Senate, the companion bill in the House bill, if it's approved, it would start January 2027.

However, the Senate companion bill, if it's approved, they're going for a July 1st start date, which would impact our midterm elections.

- Yeah.

And when those two bills come together and they pass something, those those points will be negotiated, ironed out.

- Correct.

Lindsey, how who is affected by this?

Which voters and and what should voters do as they track this?

- Everyone's affected.

Every single one of us will need to reregister essentially to vote.

We'll have to provide this additional documentation when we show up at the polls.

Um, this is an extra step, an extra barrier to voting for every single voting citizen of the United States, not to mention the people that don't have ready access to these.

They'll have to go out and get a birth certificate.

And maybe if they had a change of name, a court order that says their name was changed.

Those things are not free.

They're actually quite costly.

And we've got Floridians who can barely pay the bills right now.

And we're talking about adding an additional several hundreds of dollars per household to be able to vote.

It's a poll tax.

I mean, it's horrible.

- And we have a state lawmaker.

Her grandmother was born in a rural hospital in Georgia.

She doesn't have a birth certificate.

So how does she go about getting one?

- That's actually happening to a lot of students, too, who are born in another country here legally became citizens.

But in order to vote, they have to actually get their birth certificate from their home country being translated by the consulate, which has an unending time frame for it.

But I want to go back to something that Lindsay said that's really valuable.

We all sort of know that the federal SAVE Act isn't going to move forward.

So we're really focusing on the state.

And the reason why that's so important is because, you know, article one, section four of the US Constitution says time, place and manner of elections goes to states.

So that takes away litigation that the federal level would have mucked this up.

But in the state level they have to face the 14th amendment, the 24th amendment, I'm sorry, prohibition against poll tax.

And what we saw with amendment for a couple of years ago, which we enfranchised disenfranchized voters that were felons, but they had to pay fees and restorations.

The state of Florida very successfully defended that those fees and restorations were not poll taxes.

So this is going to go through litigation.

And it looks like there's a pathway, just like with amendment four, that this may be able to persist and survive that poll tax challenge.

- The the when you look at the Constitution, so many folks say who's in control of the elections.

You were saying that it's who verifies the the.

- Constitutionally article one of the United States Constitution, section four says.

Time, place and manner belongs to the states, but there's concurrent powers.

Right.

So states have that power, but the feds under the election clause have a power as well.

But there's been a lot of constitutional fights about who has voter qualifications, which is the verification piece.

It's never been settled law.

So that's why we're all watching to see how Florida will really unveil this, how that will move through the federal legal system and what the Supreme Court ultimately will say.

- All great points.

We're going to move on to our next segment.

The first primary elections of 2026 took place in several states, and new polls show the Florida governor's race is taking shape.

The big question can a Democrat win in a state that leans Republican?

The latest survey, out March the 4th, was done by the University of North Florida.

It shows Republican Congressman Byron Donalds, leading Democrat David Jolly, 42 to 36% and ahead of Jerry Demings, 43 to 36%.

The poll also showed Donalds besting his primary opponents James Fishback, former House Speaker Paul Renner, and Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins.

Now in the U.S.

Senate race, Republican Senator Ashley Moody is leading Democrat Alex Vindman by eight points and State Representative Angie Dixon by seven points.

Meanwhile, Florida lawmakers are also considering a bill that would provide security details for major party nominees.

The House version includes candidates for governor and lieutenant governor.

A Senate bill adds candidates for all of the cabinets, so there's plenty of interesting things moving in this in this arena of who's running for governor, who's running for lieutenant governor.

I'd like to start with you.

Um, what would you say is the most interesting aspect of the polls?

- Well, I think the polls are interesting, but there's only, uh, however many months ahead, they're very early.

Only 1200 People polled in that regard.

I'm more interested in following the money at this point.

It's we're way too early to really look at those polls.

And I'll tell you why.

The polls can also reveal something in a moment that really doesn't reveal what the voter electorate really wants to do.

First off, Byron Donalds has $40 million and the endorsement of Donald Trump.

Paul Renner is not getting much traction.

Jay Collins spent millions of dollars to get name recognition, and it hasn't moved the needle one bit.

And Fishback seems like a niche kind of governor candidate.

So people are watching him, but he's not necessarily making a big impact.

But remember back to 2018 when Andrew Gillum ran against DeSantis.

And this is somewhat interesting because it really reveals that you got to follow the money, but you also have to follow the the Florida electorate's kind of personality.

He was pulling significantly ahead of DeSantis, and then he lost by just tenths of a point.

And this is why polling is somewhat problematic.

And money sometimes tells a better story When pollsters asked people if they were going to support Gillum, of course they came back saying yes, yes, yes.

He looked like he was going to win.

But pollsters afterwards said, maybe we have a lot of shy voters in the state of Florida.

And what that really means is they don't want to reveal their racial preference in voting.

And so I think this is a variable in this election that goes beyond polls, goes beyond even money trail.

It goes to what is the personality of a of a Florida voter?

And can Donalds overcome that racial preference with the endorsement of Donald Trump?

And there's a reality, though, that we had only three black governors in the history of America.

One, of course, is the darling Democrat, Wes out of Maryland.

But, you know, it's hard to see if Byrons can overcome that racial preferences in the state of Florida.

- As we look at the numbers, you know, Trump won in the state of Florida by double digits.

Is it surprising that the, um, the advantage that we've just said is single digits.

Were you expecting to see a greater advantage?

- Well, I think it's early.

I think most voters are not paying attention.

So if you look at 2018, um, if you remember, DeSantis was not even polling at that point.

Adam Putnam in the primary was the early favorite.

- That's right.

- And he was considered a shoo in.

Well, that didn't happen.

Uh, and the 2010 Senate race, Charlie Crist had, like a 30 percentage point lead over Marco Rubio.

And Rubio was considered a long shot.

So I think we have a little bit of time before voters start really paying attention.

There is polling that shows the crosswinds Republicans are going to encounter are going to be stiffer than they're used to.

So there is angst about the economy.

There is angst about the direction of our country.

So Republicans, uh, need to, to prepare for that.

But the fundamentals are very sound for them in this state.

- There's structural realities to the politics of Florida, 1.4 million Republicans.

So that structure is there.

But the idea is, can other issues like affordability that go beyond political party?

And we have, you know, a sitting president says affordability is a hoax, but then you have our AG actually taking a side hustle for a million bucks to teach an adjunct class at University of Florida who says, hey, I need the money.

And so maybe this affordability issue is coming into Florida and a fissure in the Republican Party.

- So you're you're starting to see that.

- So whether you're a Republican or a Democrat, you are determined to participate in the primary and in the midterm.

Lindsey, what are some of the dates that that the voters should really keep an eye out on for, to take action so that they can participate?

- Yeah, they need to keep the primaries in mind.

Those are happening in mid-August.

They need to be registered for those by mid-July.

Um, in terms of staying informed, sometimes I think we give voters less credit than they deserve.

I know the polling is early, but also people are riled up about things like affordability, and they're more interested in learning about politics than I think we have been in past years.

We've certainly seen in the league an uptick of people coming and joining our organization.

Um, and for those who don't know, we put out an excellent guide that we would like everyone to go visit before they vote in the next elections.

It's vote for one one guide.

You can find it on the League of Women Voters site or vote for one one.

Um, it's nonpartisan and it has information from every candidate who answers our questions.

And usually every candidate does because we have centuries of trust.

- It's a great guy.

- Yeah, it's a great resource.

Good information is power.

Thank you.

We're going to move on to our next segment.

Teachers, nurses, sanitation workers.

Those were just some of the public sector workers closely watching a Senate bill with major implications for unions in Florida.

This was the scene near the state Capitol Building on Monday, just 45 minutes before lawmakers began debating the merits of Senate Bill 1296.

More than 150 public-sector union employees urging lawmakers to vote no.

The bill is sponsored by Republican Senator Jonathan Martin of Fort Myers.

It would require unions to maintain engagement from 60% of eligible workers in order to remain certified.

It comes just three years after lawmakers passed Senate Bill 256, and that measure ended automatic deduction of union dues from the workers paychecks and imposed a similar 60% membership threshold.

Critics of this SB 1296 call it, quote, the nail in the coffin for unions in Florida.

A lot of folks are looking at this, Michael, you know, how does this there are two different classes of people that will be affected.

This does not affect all the unions first responders have been carved out.

Explain.

- Us.

Well, it's a it's a carve out.

And by the way, it's like the one of dozens of nails that the legislature has been pounding into this coffin for quite some time.

But, yeah, it's a carve out for police, fire and first responders.

And the question is those that group tends to vote Republican.

And the ones that are going to be subject to this legislation are teachers and more Democratic leaning groups.

So I think there's some constitutional questions.

- And that's exactly leads me to Tara, that several folks who even are not critics, they're on the fence about it, have said that they have some really constitutional, big constitutional concerns.

- Well, we.

- See where do the where does the source of that come from?

- Well, we certainly want the right to associate and to to be able to use our collective action.

It's a it's a constitutional right.

But that's not as nearly important in this conversation as the 14th Amendment Equal Protection Clause, and to treat two classes of unions differently with what looks like political motivation is ripe for litigation, and what we keep seeing over and over and over in the state of Florida is that our leaders continue to pivot us to the Florida Supreme Court to answer some of these questions that we know have constitutional principles in the United States Constitution.

And so I think really what we're wondering is, will those teachers, will those hospitalists, will those folks that have been really targeted from this be treated equally under the law?

- Because just to be clear, for our viewers, the bill does not impact unions that represent police officers, firefighters or corrections officers.

- Yes.

And so hence creating a two class system violating the 14th amendment.

- And this is one of those weeks where there's so much going on, it's hard to narrow down to two topics.

So I'd like, before we go to go over some of the other big stories of the week that you are following.

Lindsay, I'd like to start with you.

- Yeah.

So I'm vice president of the St.

Petersburg Area League of Women Voters.

So I want to bring a St.

Pete issue here to us today.

Um, House Bill 1001 is just rolling through, um, session right now, and session is almost over, I think at the end of next week.

This bill would, um, threaten local officials with removal for recognizing community values related to, quote, unquote, die.

It would also prevent cities like St.

Petersburg from officially sponsoring pride.

This has already passed one side of the legislature, and it looks very likely to be heard before session ends.

Yeah.

- Tara, what would what would what are you tracking?

- I'm watching the mayoral races, you know, in Tampa Bay.

We've got a big one coming in Tampa.

Um, and it's exciting because there's a gaggle of candidates there.

They're anywhere from food entrepreneurs to former, you know, uh, sitting mayors, you know.

Of course.

Bob Buckhorn, with 1.4 million in his coffers, is really the one to watch in that race.

But then when you go over to St.

Pete, I think it's interesting because it might be kind of a real headwind of other communities.

We have Mayor Welch really trying to hold on to his seat, and then we have former governor and Congressman Charlie Crist entering the race.

But what was kind of curious to me is this idea that Jim Large is getting in.

He was the former fire department chief in St.

Pete, and he was actually suspended for a while for some very controversial comments.

But he's rolled out his campaign on ideas like infrastructure, affordability, public safety.

Well, those are ideas that everybody in the city of St.

Pete are interested in.

And so if he can successfully capture the imagination of voters, St.

Pete is 40% blue.

So if he can can peel away some of those, that might be an interesting pathway for other strongholds of Democratic voters that they can find a way to to pull them into there.

- You've talked about housing affordability being the the big issue that we keep hearing about in the St.

Pete mayor's race.

What about in the Tampa mayor's race?

- You know what?

That's an interesting.

And I actually am watching Tampa really reveal itself and what the issues that are really connecting all the candidates are just putting out their platforms right now.

Affordability is always at the top of mind.

But Tampa has a little bit of different personality.

And so let's see what those candidates come out swinging with.

Right now, the Democratic candidates in St.

Pete are really focusing on equity and issues that are very controversial on the state level.

So that's why when you go to affordability, you can kind of reach across both aisles.

- Michael.

- Well, we're taking a look at Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Um, he spent eight years in the Florida legislature.

He reached House speaker.

And as we're observing now, he is becoming, uh, believe it or not, one of the most consequential secretaries of state we've ever had.

You could maybe compare what he's doing right now with Kissinger, or even if you want to go further back to Dean Acheson with the creation of the New World Order, Rubio is, uh, you know, he's working with a very strong willed president.

But his view, his worldview of, uh, you know, interventionist, uh, you know, militaristic power, um, regime change, uh, even nation building seems to have taken hold of late with this presidency.

- And when is this story that we can look forward to.

- Uh, this weekend?

Uh, probably looking maybe Saturday or Sunday.

- Congratulations.

We enjoyed your Pam Bondi story on her first year as U.S.

Attorney General.

So thank you all for coming in.

Thank you for sharing your perspectives with us.

Again, thank you to our panelists today, Tara Newsome, Michael Van Sickler, and Lindsey Polega.

Remember that our conversations don't stop on TV.

You can see extended bonus content on our YouTube channel.

Check it out at youtube.com w PBS and you can also find all of our past episodes of Florida This Week at WEDU.org.

All this year, we're spotlighting leaders at the top of their fields innovators and mentors, inspiring us in a variety of industries.

Today, we turn to health care.

Dr.

Luv is a board certified colorectal and general surgeon with AdventHealth.

He specializes in the full spectrum of colorectal care and advanced robotic surgeries.

In fact, he is recognized as a Surgeon of Excellence in Robotic Surgery by the Surgical Review Corporation.

That's a nonprofit that's administering best in class accreditation programs for medical professionals worldwide.

We are so happy to have him in the studio with us.

Doctor, thank you so much for coming in.

- Thank you so much for inviting me to talk about a very a topic that's very near and dear to my heart.

- Let's talk about that trend.

Colon cancer is something that most people think about is a disease for for old people.

And the trends don't don't show that.

- Yeah.

So colon cancer is traditionally thought to be a disease that increases with age.

And I think we've made tremendous strides in finding it early and almost decreasing the incidence of it with the use of colonoscopy and preventing the disease.

Now, we have seen a trend recently in patients who are younger than the screening age, particularly patients who are younger than 50 years of age and millennials.

And we're seeing a rise in colon cancer in this population.

And which is, you know, it's been more prevalent in the last, you know, 5 to 10 years.

- What are some of the statistics that you would say that you said where more young people are getting this?

- Yeah.

So currently, out of all the colorectal cancer, um, 20% of that occurs in patients who are younger than 50 years old.

And that is, you know, completely new.

And that used to be 11%, you know, 15, 20 years ago.

And that has increased now.

- To what do we can we attribute this trend to?

Is it diet?

Is it what we're drinking?

Is it environmental?

- There are a lot of links, but there is no particular causative relationship to what we call the modifiable risk factors.

So some things that are associated with risk of colon cancer is ultra processed meats, high protein, high red meat intake, alcohol consumption, smoking and some of the protective effects are given by fiber, but there is not a particular causative relationship.

So, you know, rather than blaming one particular item, I would focus on a healthy, balanced diet that has, you know, protein, fiber, carbs and all the nutrients.

- And that's certainly a message that we heard after the death of 47 year old James Vanderbeek, who was the the the actor who died from Dawson's Creek.

Also, 43 year old Chadwick Boseman, known as the Black Panther when he died in 2020.

Both of them said that they did not recognize that the bowel movement changes that they were experiencing were the early signs.

They just thought they were having too much coffee.

And so you're helping to raise awareness.

Tell us about your Tampa Bay story.

Why Tampa to practice your your profession is amazing.

- So, you know, I've spent some time all over Florida.

My parents live in South Florida.

I've trained in Miami, Georgetown, LSU.

But I went to USF here and fell in love with Tampa Bay.

We have an incredible community.

It's very diverse.

And what I found in the last few years of practicing here is that everybody's really, um, you know, focused on a healthy lifestyle and wants to do better.

So it's great to have this community around me.

- Thank you so much, and congratulations on all of your successes.

Thank you.

We are very proud to sponsor the community conversations on colon cancer that are happening on March the 11th.

They're being hosted by AdventHealth and the Tampa Bay Times.

The event is free and it's open to the public, so don't miss colon cancer on the rise?

What Tampa Bay needs to know.

And that's all the time we have for now.

We know you've got plenty of options for your news and information, so we thank you for choosing us at Florida This Week.

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