- This is a production of WEDU PBS, Tampa, St.

Petersburg, Sarasota.

[music] - Coming up in the race for governor, the frontrunners appear set, but one candidate's running mate is now the subject of a criminal investigation.

In the race for U.S.

Senate, the polling tells a different story than the fundraising does, and redistricting has turned one of Tampa Bay's safest congressional seats into a genuine race.

In St.

Petersburg, six candidates are making their case to lead the city.

Will it be a majority take all, or will the race head for a runoff?

We talk about the issues that have followed the race from the start.

There's a new idea in the race stadium saga.

Could it break a months-long stalemate?

Plus, Florida's primary is just days away.

We talk about it next on Florida This Week.

[music] Welcome back to Florida.

This Week, I'm Lissette Campos.

We've got a lot of ground to cover.

Joining us today, Ana Cruz, managing partner at Ballard Partners and a longtime voice in Florida Democratic politics.

We have Aakash Patel, founder and president of Elevate Incorporated and a Republican strategist, and also Colleen Wright, who covers the St.

Petersburg area for the Tampa Bay Times.

We begin with the race for governor, where both parties have a clear front-runner.

The real fight is for second place.

On the Republican side, Congressman Byron Donalds, endorsed by President Trump, holds a commanding lead.

A University of North Florida poll has him near 45%, well ahead of Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins.

James Fischbach and Paul Renner.

What's also new is that Fischbach's running mate is now under criminal investigation by the Broward County State Attorney's Office.

Sean Lozano's former employer, the Lauderhill Police Department, requested the investigation over his conduct as a police officer.

No charges have been filed.

And then on the Democratic side, former Congressman David Jolly holds a similar double digit lead over five lesser known candidates.

Jolly left the Republican Party in large part over his opposition to President Trump.

I'd like to start with you, Aakash.

Donalds seems to have this all locked up.

So you know what is actually worth watching in the primary, you would say.

- I think Congressman Donalds has known that he's going to win the primary for a long time.

The next day, the day after, or even the night of on the 18th is.

Will Lieutenant Governor Collins call him to to concede?

And we'll Speaker Renner do the same.

I don't expect Mr.

Fishback to do that, but I think the quicker that Speaker Renner and Lieutenant Governor Collins will unite the party better.

- And on the Democratic side, you've got the Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, dropping out of the race for governor, citing health issues.

There are a handful of other candidates, much lesser known.

Does this really open the field for jolly to concentrate on his campaign and his position rather than the others?

I mean, is he going to run under the anti-Trump or modern Republican Party?

Kind of.

- You know what I think David Jolly needs to run, um, as the candidate that understands what everyday Floridians are experiencing.

That's affordability, homeowners insurance, um, housing, affordable housing, cost of living issues, you know, wages, you know, everybody is feeling that crunch right now.

And, you know, any candidate who wants to win needs to really understand the everyday voter and what they're the challenges they're facing.

- Let's talk about this latest twist in the Republican candidates with Fishback and his running mate Lozano now under investigation.

How do you all see this dynamic in this race that's already pretty, pretty muddy?

- I don't think it's a story.

I mean, first of all, the other three candidates in the Republican primary and I believe have not picked their lieutenant governor because they're going to wait until after the primary.

And also, majority of Floridians don't know who Sean Lozano is.

So so I think this investigation is just a way for Mr.

Fishback to change the narrative and focus it on him.

- And I would.

- I agree, absolutely agree.

- Both of you are agreeing.

Well that's.

- I agree.

Absolutely.

- Next we focus on the race for U.S.

Senate.

And the real contest may not be the one that you'd expect.

Senator Ashley Moody faces little opposition in the Republican primary.

The real race is on the Democratic side between State Representative Angie Nixon against Alexander Vindman.

Vindman is a retired Army officer known for his impeachment testimony against President Trump.

A University of North Florida poll shows that both would trail Moody in a general election match, up 50 to 42 against Nixon, 50 to 40 against Vindman.

Nixon polled slightly stronger against Moody, despite the fact that she's raised about $975,000, which is very little compared to Vindman's war chest of more than $16 million.

What does that say to us?

That she's trending much more popular and she's raised so much less money?

- Well, I think that Tracey has a really good track record as a legislator.

Right.

She has a very strong voice in Tallahassee as a state legislator and a senator and a network of of SEIU members that know her and like her.

And and she's been on the front lines fighting for affordability, fighting for, for, you know, wage equity.

So, um, and she's super bright, um, well known and well liked.

Um, and you know what Vindman may have $16 million in the bank, but people don't really identify him as a Floridian, right.

Or as, as someone who's been in public service.

So I think that that's where the real disconnect is.

- Aakash, what would you.

- How do you see this?

I agree, I don't vitamin came here to run for the seat.

People can see right through that.

And Senator Moody has done a great job.

You know she was appointed by governor DeSantis.

She was endorsed by President Trump.

But she's also in line with being a female attorney general for almost eight years.

And so Floridians know her as a leader and a fighter.

And before that, she was a judge here in Hillsborough County.

So I think I think this is her race to lose, and she's clearly staying clear and doing what she does every day.

Fighting for Floridians.

- And closer to home, redistricting has turned one of the safest seats in the Tampa Bay area into a real race.

Congresswoman Kathy Castor has won ten straight elections, never by less than 15 points.

But Florida's new congressional map reshaped her district, shifting it sharply more Republican as St.

Pete Polls survey still has her ahead of the likely Republican nominee Mike Beltran, 46 to 38.

There are seven other Republicans on the primary ballot.

National forecasters now rate this race as leaning Republican.

Further south, Congressman Vern Buchanan's retirement has opened a seat for the first time in two decades.

Nine candidates are running.

Sidney Gruters is among the Republicans, and she has President Trump's endorsement.

I'd like to ask you, Colleen, you've reported on all of the changes in the map and how you've you've noted how this dilutes the voting power of the urban core.

Explain that for our viewers.

- Yeah, absolutely.

You know, I just want to start with, you know, state legislators said that they did not use race to make these maps.

They use Partizan data.

But if you look at these these congressional maps, it kind of looks like a pinwheel kind of in the core of Tampa.

And it slices through, you know, African American neighborhoods here in, you know, in St.

Pete, the city that I cover.

St.

Pete's used to being split in half.

In the last time it was redistricted, it was split east west.

Now it's split north south.

And the south part, which is home to St.

Pete's black community, is now lumped in with Wauchula, DeSoto County.

Um, it's very an urban core mixed with very rural, you know, part of kind of Florida's interior and very rural areas.

So it's a very different congressional district.

And St.

Pete's voting power is diluted again.

- Akash, you know, Congresswoman Castor has been in this community for decades.

What does this say about our community?

When a change in the map can really affect the voting of the citizens?

- Well, I think I think you see Representative Beltran having the lead because he covered most of this district when he was in the state legislature.

I also think Representative Kevin Steele has a great chance as well.

I know that he's not ahead in the polls in the poll that you mentioned, but I think it's going to be between Mr.

Beltran and Mr.

Steele and Kathy Castor.

Well, she might be.

She will.

It'll be single digits.

And she's done a lot for her community, as you mentioned.

But I think that Beltran and Steele represent the new Republican Party.

And this is leaning Republican.

- Are the two candidates on the Republican side vastly different, or are they speaking the same platform?

- Beltran endorsed Trump both times.

Steele endorsed him the last time this last presidential.

I think they're both pretty similar.

I think Representative Steele had more in the Pasco County area when he was where he was elected, but he's going to he's from Tampa.

He's coming back home.

I think he's going to do.

I think he'll do well if he's elected.

And I think Beltran.

We've already seen what he's done in the legislature.

- Ana, do you think that the Trump endorsement of any of these candidates will make a difference?

- I think that that is the ultimate question.

And I think that post analysis of, you know, really diving into voter turnout, you know, where did Hispanics go this time?

Because we know that last time they went with Trump, but they've been disenfranchised and, and, and, you know, unsupportive as of late.

So it's going to, we're going to have to dig deep and, and better understand, you know, the electorate's thoughts and trends behind this cycle itself.

Um, but listen, like, you know, you can redraw Kathy Castor's district, but you can't redraw 20 years of, of dedication, appropriations and relationships and in the Tampa area.

- It's something that will definitely continue to follow.

We're going to move on to our next segment, perhaps the most consequential race for the Tampa Bay area.

We're talking about the next mayor of St.

Pete.

A St.

Pete polls survey has former Governor Charlie Crist leading a field of six candidates at 31%.

Incumbent Mayor Ken Welch follows at 17.

City Council member Brandi Gabbard at 11, former fire Chief Jim Large at nine, followed by Kevin Batdorf and Maria Scruggs.

No one is expected to clear the 50% threshold, so the race likely will head to the runoff in November.

I'd like your.

This is something that you've covered.

St.

Pete is your beat.

Colleen.

I'd like to get your your take on all of this.

- Yeah, absolutely.

It is a very interesting race.

You're right.

I think the takeaway from that poll, of course, is that the incumbent is not leading in the polls.

That's incumbent Mayor Ken Welch.

And that's very different from when he took office in 2021.

There was a lot of momentum.

He was leading in the primary, and he was also he won the general with 60.

Yeah, 60.5%.

That's a huge turnout.

Um, and you know, here, you know, it's looking like he's getting the second place spot, although that also is not guaranteed.

Um, there has been polling done that shows that Brandi Gabbard is within striking distance.

You know, Jim Large, the former fire chief, has, uh, a lot of support among Republicans.

And if you look at voter registration numbers, since November of 2021, Democrats have lost about 18,000 19,000 registered voters in St.

Pete.

Republicans have stayed the same.

And for candidate, you know, for voters with no party affiliation, they've also dropped about 9000, 10,000.

So it you know, St.

Pete is still a very blue city, a Democratic city.

But, um, you know, given the numbers, you've got some strong candidates here.

It's, it's kind of a shake up.

And I don't, I don't know if the mayor is truly guaranteed even to make the runoff.

- He is the incumbent.

What would you say is driving these numbers that are so much lower than they were before?

- Yeah, absolutely.

I, you know, there's hurricane response.

You know, we've had two hurricanes and now the debris was picked up on time, but folks in really flooded out areas kind of pointed to a little bit of confusion, lack of communication about debris pickup.

Didn't really see such a response.

Some folks point to, you know, deals not really getting done.

When Mayor Welch took office, he kind of canceled or unwound some projects that were already underway, for example, bringing a Moffitt Cancer Center campus to downtown St.

Petersburg that would have brought not only cancer care for St.

Petersburg residents, but, you know, instead of driving all the way to Tampa, but also high paying jobs.

And the mayor kind of cited not enough affordable housing in that project, but that just didn't kind of resonate with residents.

And he had an extra year in office Back in 2022, voters decided to move elections to even numbered years to be aligned with state and federal elections.

And there's just not a whole lot that can be point to be pointed at as progress, even with another year in office.

- And this is we want to stress that this is a nonpartisan race, right?

And Kristen Walsh are both known Democrats.

What does a name like Crists do to the local race?

- I mean, you know, clearly Charlie has, um a name ID, no doubt about it.

But he, you know, he's been gone from St.

Pete for, for quite a while.

Um, and I, and I really do think that this comes to, uh, comes down to turnout, right.

Um, if the urban core really shows up on election day and early voting, I think that, uh, that will, will really give Ken Welch the boost that he needs to, to head into the general election.

But, um, you know, once again, people people want from their candidates to understand that that that they connect with them and they understand what the challenges that they're facing.

So Democrats need to, you know, run towards voters.

- Let's talk about Brandi Gabbard for a minute.

She's sitting at 11%.

Um, you know, is there a path for her if this goes to the runoff?

- Listen, I always think that there's a path for women on the ballot, particularly if she's that close.

Um, we've seen it in judicial races all the time.

Um, you know, women that barely campaign against a male candidate, women, you know, take it more often than not.

So that'll be interesting.

- To watch as the only male on the table.

No, I have to ask you, from a business and development standpoint, how would a Crist administration be different from a Welch's second term?

- Well, the reason you've seen a lot of Republicans support Charlie Crist financially, and you see that through former Senator Lemieux and others is because Charlie Crist is consistent.

He knows how to do retail politics.

He knows how to call people back.

He knows how to coalesce different parties and different races.

And I think he's been consistent, whatever party he has been.

And so I think business people are excited to see the other part of it, the Trop development.

I know Colin's written this extensively.

The trop redevelopment was handled a little different than most people thought Welch would.

- The Gas Plant.

- The Gas Plant.

Yeah.

And I think most people thought Cathie Wood had a great shot.

She's like the new up and coming leader in St.

Pete.

And Welch didn't even acknowledge her.

And I think that really ticked a lot of people off in the in the St.

Pete, the city of St.

Pete.

I think Charlie Crist has vowed to review that.

And it gives a lot more people hope for the city of St.

Pete, and I'm excited for that.

- Does an early front runner like Chris benefit from the extra time, or does it give the field a chance to kind of consolidate against him?

- No, I think he benefits.

- Okay.

A big issue in the race was the race decision that Akash had just alluded to.

Um, Colleen, what are you hearing from people in when you're out there in the on the news beat interviewing?

What are they saying at this point?

How big of an issue is the gas plant to who they pick for the next mayor?

- Absolutely.

You know, I mean, people are kind of all over the place.

It's always a mixed bag.

But I do think there is a sense of, you know, we've spent two you know, the city has spent 2 or 3 years negotiating a deal with the Rays and Hines.

It was kind of over, you know, right as those hurricanes hit.

And now let's just take a pause and see whoever's the next mayor and go from, you know, go from there.

Uh, Brandi Gabbard was actually, you know, she's a two term city council member.

She's currently on the city Council right now.

She led the effort to a six two vote to ask the mayor to pause, kind of slow his roll on picking a developer.

And going forward.

He didn't really do that.

Uh, you know, she wanted a plan.

And Mayor Welch says that he's engaged the Urban Land Institute.

Other council members kind of feel this is kind of a cart before the horse situation.

Um, but, you know, we will see, you know, it's kind of the gas plant.

Tropicana field is kind of one of St.

Pete's like largest, most unfinished business that they have.

And it's certainly a factor.

And also on the Rays, you know, Charlie Crist has kind of been campaigning on almost like a nostalgia, you know, wants to keep the Rays in town, wants to, you know, kind of keep St.

Pete as it is.

So, you know, it's interesting.

It's very.

- Interesting.

And we do have a significant number of undecided voters.

Yes, 26% out of the two of you strategists see this.

- That is a big number.

Um, a really big number.

And if voters break, um, in a certain direction in favor of one candidate, that will make all the difference in the world.

I just don't know if they're communicating directly enough with voters at this time, i.e.

are they spending enough money or are they on TV or are they, you know, engaging with voters directly?

- I think I've noticed social media.

I mean, St.

Pete, the electorate, they are younger folks.

They're newer to the area.

Most don't remember Commissioner Welch, most don't remember Congressman Crist or Governor Crist.

So I think they're using a lot of social media.

There you're seeing St.

Pete being more young, more fitness, a lot of a lot of cool activities.

And I think the whole, the, the, the statement about the Gas District is it's going to be a vibrant community.

It already is.

Now it's going to get better.

I think young people are going to generally vote for that.

- That 26% is going to be the the deciding factor.

Yeah.

Okay.

Moving now to the Rays such a focal point of the mayor's race, there is new movement in the stadium saga.

Tampa City Council stalled the Rays stadium deal last month, blocking a key land use vote and pulling a vote on public funding.

But Councilman Bill Carlson has now floated a new financing structure, one that would replace the city's original $180 million proposal.

It would be through a tax increment financing district.

The funds would be generated from rising property value around the stadium, not a separate payment from the city.

Carlson does say that the Rays like it, but it is not a done deal at this point.

It's the first real movement, though, in two months it could go before council later this month.

The cash.

Your thoughts on this latest news?

- I just want to count to four.

Let's get four votes and get the stadium in Hillsborough College.

I'm a former trustee, Hillsborough College.

I'm excited.

This is this story.

It's great that the councilman brought it to the front of the news, but the story was there.

The TIF option was out there before Ken Babby, the CEO of the Rays, said, we'll work with whatever you can give us to get this across the finish line.

I think this this will shift Councilman Carlson's vote.

I think the four the four votes will have it.

I think it's just now between city council and county commission.

And the councilman has said he's met with Bonnie Wise, the county administrator.

Let's see where the votes are and get this done, because we have to move forward.

I think I believe by October, the Major League Baseball has to know.

- And that's something that Colleen has been covering.

What happens on the other side of the bridge, right?

What happens with the stadium and the land where the Rays are now?

- Absolutely.

So the Rays are under contract to play at Tropicana Field through the end of the 2028 season.

So it's this season and two more, um, after that kind of remains an open question.

They can go to Tampa or elsewhere.

They're no longer locked in to playing at Tropicana Field.

Um, and of course, you know, whoever's mayor, whether it's Mayor Welch or someone else will have to deal with that.

Um, you know, the mayor did ask, um, teams that were competing to redevelop the gas plant.

You know, what would you do in the event of an extension?

The mayor's been saying repeatedly, you know, we're ready to work out an extension, one, two, three, five years, whatever the Rays need.

Um, of course it's going to be a whole new set of terms and then you'll have to get into negotiations.

But, uh, you know, looking at the timing, I don't know if they can build a stadium, you know, that quickly in.

- Two years are up for extension, though I don't think the Rays want to stay there.

- Long.

They don't.

Yeah.

- They don't want an extension.

- But.

- Time is not really on their side.

- I would That's true.

That's true.

- So yeah, we will see.

That's it's not over yet in St.

Pete.

- And so much of the conversation is around the stadium.

You have sat on the board of the Hillsborough College.

Um, tell us about the conversations about the campus, about from the other leaders at Hillsborough College.

- Hillsborough College's perspective.

It's phenomenal.

Every year we went to the legislature, we went to Congress.

We said, can we get some more funding to help improve our classrooms, help fund our teachers better, our professors better, and $50 million to the tune of $150 million.

What some of the proposals, that whole area is going to be renovated.

Our enrollment's already up.

And this will just increase our awareness.

And also it'll give the students a better opportunity to get into the workforce for hospitality, for sports management.

That's what the Rays have promised.

And that's what we love talking about this.

It's not just transformational for the economic development, the bed tax, the tourism.

Plus we get baseball closer to our home.

But the changing the lives of the students of Hillsborough College, that's what.

- You're talking about.

The partnerships, um, with the academic curriculum of the school so that they can have hands on experience.

- Plus corporate sponsors that the Rays have committed to bringing and fortune 500 relocations.

Now we'll have say, where can these students go and where can we partner with educational institutions?

We have USF, we have University of Tampa, and we have Hillsborough College.

- And the businessmen, the business community in St.

Pete.

Are they asking, well, why didn't they promise that in St.

Pete?

- There was some of that in the community benefits discussion?

You know, that was kind of one of Ken Welch's big priorities were jobs and opportunities for minority owned businesses.

And the mayor says that, you know, should we move forward with this latest plan for the gas plant, we will have that too.

He picked up Blake Investment Partners.

And there there is some of that.

There's promises of engaging small businesses, minority owned businesses, affordable housing.

So we'll see if that comes to fruition that way.

- And this is a part of the show where we take advantage of the expertise of our panelists, and we ask them for the other big stories of the week that they've been following.

Colleen, I'd like to ask you, what's the what's the other big story that you've been following?

- So following the St.

Petersburg mayor's race?

You know, this is the first mayor's race since elections shifted, you know, to even-numberd years.

It's a much longer ballot.

I'm interested in the turnout on on the specific race.

- Do you think it's going to be high?

- I don't know, I don't know if there's going to be some undercounts under, you know, some under voting on the ballot.

I'm interested in what the actual turnout is on that race and how it compares to past years.

- Aakash, what's your big story?

- I'm going to turn to football because it's football season coming up.

Baker Mayfield is our quarterback for the Buccaneers.

Go Bucs!

We have 31 other NFL quarterbacks.

But in Tampa we have one quarterback in Baker Mayfield.

Him and his wife Emily Mayfield for the fourth year in a row are supporting the Early Learning Coalition of Hillsborough County.

That's the board I chair for.

And I was appointed by the governor.

And they want to see.

And they have young children themselves.

But they want to see that every child, regardless of income level, have equality, access to education.

That event is August 30th at Top Golf Tampa.

I'm just so thankful to the Mayfield for choosing us as our benefactor.

- Thank you for sharing that, Anna.

- I'm going to go back to the election season.

Um, Tuesday is going to tell us who the candidates are, but November will tell us whether Florida is really actually competitive again, as a state for Democrats.

- The any any big surprises that you all are watching in terms of what happens from now to Tuesday election day?

- MM.

- The running mate of Congressman Donalds, because I think a lot of people have said the short list has publicized, but I don't think it'll be someone that we expect, which is great.

I think it's good to have some fresh perspective on.

It's a running mate.

- Anna.

- Um, in my opinion, I don't I don't think running mates, running mates make a big deal.

I mean, in Democratic circles, we always say nobody votes for the running mate.

They vote for the the candidate themselves.

But um, what was your question again?

I got sidetracked.

- Glenn Graham was a great running.

She was.

- Gwen.

Gwen is absolutely a great running mate.

Um, she's run a legacy.

- Family and politics.

- Yep.

Um, you know, served in Congress and, um, as a known entity.

So, uh, you know, he he chose that running mate about a month or so ago, and they have been crisscrossing the state and, you know, getting, getting the word out, talking to voters.

- Are you expecting to hear anything new from now to Tuesday?

- You know, you never know.

You know, it's it's silly season with election season.

But you know, I'm interested in maybe there's a surprise on Tuesday.

Is Charlie Crist support overstated.

Um, you know, could someone else sneak in into the top two.

It'll be very, very interesting.

- Is anyone expecting governor DeSantis to endorse someone?

- Not the name of the game?

No.

- You know, I think if he was going to endorse someone, he would have done it and made a big campaign around it.

- Yeah.

- All right.

Well, thank you so much for your time and for coming in.

That's all the time we have for now.

Thank you so much to our panelists, Anna Cruz, Aakash Patel and Colleen Wright.

Don't forget, Tuesday is Election Day.

The polls are open 7 a.m.

to 7 p.m.. Thanks for watching.

We'll see you next week.

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